ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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RE - countertrend trading vs trend

This is today's chart (DAX), trend, which is now pretty obvious, is of course bearish. Made just under 100 points trading against dominant trend today, 1 short and 7 long. ImO it's not about which prevails, it's down to what I can do to make money. I, personally, hate draw downs, if trade is not going in my favour and I am in red full position by 1/5th of expected profit I take no prisoners, no matter what my bias might tell me, I am out, gone. If my bias/analyses are correct, then price will return to my original level where I placed that buy or sell order & if conditions are favourable I try again. As far as trading breakouts intraday, ImE/ImO I don't favour them and rarely would bite the bait, to me resistance levels are there to be sold and support levels to be bought, not vice versa.

Just some random thoughts and random they are, life is beautiful.

N.B. Not stoned :)

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1604734>
 

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nice trade Saxon..... where did you close ?


Quote from saxon22:

I am still trying to kill this pig! :)


Just killed it. $688 profit for today. Undoubtedly, miniscule by the standards set by traders on this thread,but I am happy. :D :D
Wife's birthday is coming up and that extra $$$$ will come in handy. :D
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Quote from vertigo3:

ESZ07 would fill gap with print of 1486.50 (4:00 close Wed,9/12),

but does anyone have thoughts about AH gap closes, I mean, obviously, the gap was only formed by looking at RTH, can it only legitimately be filled in RTH? ( I would assume so, but regardless, AH prints within 3 tics of that level might sponsor short covering.

Any observations about gaps? RTH creates, do they have any potential during the AH?
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My impression -- and I would love to hear the thoughts of others on this -- is that RTH gaps are approaching irrelevance, and that the fixation on RTH gaps is an old-school holdover from the days when there was no Globex, or Globex was far less significant than it is now. Now it's a continuous market. Show me a Globex gap, and I'll show you a gap to be filled. But RTH gaps? Eh.

Yes, cateris paribus, if some RTH gap is in the immediate vicinity of price, the RTH gap will be filled -- probably -- but as for price actually seeking out the RTH gap to fill? I wouldn't count on it anymore.
 
Quote from volente_00:

sounds like a plan

short from 95.25 to 1486


then long from 1486 to 1514
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Out at 86 and in long on a rule of 10 as well as gap fill



Love it when a plan comes together
 
Quote from tortoise:

My impression -- and I would love to hear the thoughts of others on this -- is that RTH gaps are approaching irrelevance, and that the fixation on RTH gaps is an old-school holdover from the days when there was no Globex, or Globex was far less significant than it is now. Now it's a continuous market. Show me a Globex gap, and I'll show you a gap to be filled. But RTH gaps? Eh.

Yes, cateris paribus, if some RTH gap is in the immediate vicinity of price, the RTH gap will be filled -- probably -- but as for price actually seeking out the RTH gap to fill? I wouldn't count on it anymore.
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I've wondered about this as well for the same reason. Haven't done any studies to confirm it but my (subjective)
observation is that the RTH gaps still seem to matter. My theory is that despite the near 24 hour market the vast majority of volume still occurs during RTH. There may also be a self fulfilling prophecy effect as well, from so many still watching the gaps. I'd also be interested to here other opinions.
 
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