ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Quote from jagmot:

Saxon,

Great job on making lots of $$$! I am definitely envious of profits like that. I consider a huge day for myself at 20 ES points total/ $1000 per day (not per lot).

I am still however concerned that your trading style is incorrect. In order for you to make big profits, you need to actually be initially wrong in your trade so that you can get more contracts and load up at lower prices. Is this correct?

From your above post (this is obviously somewhat hypothetical) but it looks like all you did is go long at 1475, then 1474, then 1473, etc and finally make your last buy at 1462 (14 contracts). You end up needing the market to rally back to 1468.5 to breakeven. So even with avg down, you needed to make up 7 points per contract in order to make 1 pt per contract.

This is not a sound trading style as you can look back in history and see days where the market went either straight up or straight down. You could make money 99.9% of days but one day the market won't come back and you will lose.

Here is a high profile example
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nick_lesson
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Well, in order to be profitable, I need to go against the trend. So far it has been working. Maybe because the market never goes straight up or straight down forever. As for that inevitable loss ... it will happen and the key is to be able to control it.
 
Quote from mbusch:

Added to short here at 1497.00
BS for add-on at 1498.75 (1.75 ponts)
BS for initial short still breakeven at 1501.00, but will lower it if/when ES paints below 492.50.
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Don't like price action here, so closed out add-on at a two-tick loss, and will wait for a better point to re-enter short.

Still holding initial short with breakeven stop (1501.00).
 
Quote from atticus:

Sorry, been away from the thread, but am I to understand that he ADDED at one point with 14 contracts and ended the day up $2,000? That's deplorable performance. No offense Sax, but you'll be lucky to last the year. I missed my best set-up at 146750 due to the kids, but a two lot swing at my signal would've equaled that performance with risk on a two lot. Not blowing my horn, it's just an example. Saxon, you're driving blind.
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I never said that I am as good as some of you guys. Quiet the contrary. However, so far this is the only way that I know how to extract $$$ from ES. So far, it is working. if I knew how to do it your way, I would have switched in a heart beat, but I do not (hence the comment of driving blind being so accurate).
 
Quote from saxon22:

I never said that I am as good as some of you guys. Quiet the contrary. However, so far this is the only way that I know how to extract $$$ from ES. So far, it is working. if I knew how to do it your way, I would have switched in a heart beat, but I do not (hence the comment of driving blind being so accurate).
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It's not an issue of being good or bad. I don't want to see you blow-out, that's all.
 
Quote from jagmot:

I'm not saying that is exactly what he did, but that is what his system looks like it does. Basically keep adding till you get that reversal for a few points and you've avg down far enough. fortunately it looks like he stopped mid day with enough profits, because if he had gone long again the two small bounces in the last hour of the day would not have been enough to get him back to be.
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I never place new order after 2 PM and rarely after 1PM.
 
Quote from smilingsynic:

Moving to BE is probably a good idea. The late-morning move down is orderly enough--no rush for the doors--that 1502.5 might well get retested. If it stays above 1492, I would say that the retest is very likely, since 1492 is the low of the breakout bar from earlier this morning.

As for me, I will be buying longer-term otm puts if it gets back to the morning's high.
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Would you consider selling calls as well?
 
Personally, I wouldn't sell a risk-reversal into a bear-projection. I won't get into the specifics, but you lose on skew as well as strip if you're wrong. I would suggest one or the other, but not both. However, buying a risk-reversal into a rally will often outperform equal deltas in futures, and you'll lose on strip but gain on skew in the bull reversal.

I like selling the ES Aug 1510 call here at $10.50/17%. I also like the 1450/1510 strangle neutral at 1480 for $16.00. Skew neutral [today] at 1490.
 
Quote from atticus:

Personally, I wouldn't sell a risk-reversal into a bear-projection. I won't get into the specifics, but you lose on skew as well as strip if you're wrong. I would suggest one or the other, but not both. However, buying a risk-reversal into a rally will often outperform equal deltas in futures, and you'll lose on strip but gain on skew in the bull reversal.

I like selling the ES Aug 1510 call here at $10.50/17%. I also like the 1450/1510 strangle neutral at 1480 for $16.00.
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Lots of incredible expertise in this journal. Thanks atticus. Nice to see this stuff as well.
 
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