ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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For the first time today I tried constant volume charts (I have heard things about inconsistencies on tick charts on instruments traded on Globex, so I wanted to try CV ones first) side by side with my usual 3 minute charts. There is a definite difference in fast markets, almost a head start of sorts.
Unfortunately, a poorly timed hedge (used ES to hedge a much larger stock portfolio) pretty much wiped out my gains from short-term trading.
Thanks again for the suggestion to look beyond time-based.
first resistance zone.. with the high on the zone being 94-96. If it can't bust through this zone then we head back to lows 56-58.
this would the middle portion of the classic 'w' bottom...
one thing about equity markets, they burn the short position traders more then the longs on a historical basis.
some markets that are moving together:
long oil
long equities
long gold
short dollar
long carry (yen)
short bonds
the above is basically a macro trade. If you have those position biases in place. Your playing the macro scenario of greed. Opposite position biases would be the fear trade.
the equity market can diverge with underlying reality of the situation for a good deal of time. And thats what kills the short position traders. Even though the shorts are looking at the underlying reality of the economic situation, the equity market can be propped up by MM's till when they choose to run stops.
the first real fears of a recession which we just had a whiff of last week, decimate equity markets over a prolonged period of time. The first interest rate cut, rallies the market. Then the market tanks realizing that profits will be less as the economic cycle unwinds. Then as the interest rate cuts progress, the market finds support and rallies with each interest rate cut.
Based on where futures are now, the market is up already more then 30 points off the lows. From the highs to lows we are off about 100 points. If your a bull you would look for the highs to be retested at 1566 on sep futures.
this would the middle portion of the classic 'w' bottom...
one thing about equity markets, they burn the short position traders more then the longs on a historical basis.
some markets that are moving together:
long oil
long equities
long gold
short dollar
long carry (yen)
short bonds
the above is basically a macro trade. If you have those position biases in place. Your playing the macro scenario of greed. Opposite position biases would be the fear trade.
the equity market can diverge with underlying reality of the situation for a good deal of time. And thats what kills the short position traders. Even though the shorts are looking at the underlying reality of the economic situation, the equity market can be propped up by MM's till when they choose to run stops.
the first real fears of a recession which we just had a whiff of last week, decimate equity markets over a prolonged period of time. The first interest rate cut, rallies the market. Then the market tanks realizing that profits will be less as the economic cycle unwinds. Then as the interest rate cuts progress, the market finds support and rallies with each interest rate cut.
Based on where futures are now, the market is up already more then 30 points off the lows. From the highs to lows we are off about 100 points. If your a bull you would look for the highs to be retested at 1566 on sep futures.
trendline.
based on current dynanmics, the market is enjoying sponsorship from the MM's, the key today is to look for sponsorship through the first resistance zone. If further buying is not evident past the resistance zone, then it implies that the market will turn back to lows around 60.
resistance zones:
94-96
16-18
28
44
56
66
understand how quickly the sentiment shift occurred, it really doesn't take much. Usually the catalyst the keeps a market down, is continued negativity in the media. And the optimism is pervasive and you can feel it in the air.
resistance zones:
94-96
16-18
28
44
56
66
understand how quickly the sentiment shift occurred, it really doesn't take much. Usually the catalyst the keeps a market down, is continued negativity in the media. And the optimism is pervasive and you can feel it in the air.
On the last day of the month, worth noting that June's end of month numbers were INDU 13408 (we are already above that) and INX 1503 (a bit of a stretch, but not out of reach). If you believe that big money manipulates the markets, those are today's targets. It will be a major victory for the bulls if the Dow can close up on the month after last week's angst.
consumer sentiment numbers at 10, they should come in weak.
intraday tic support
85
77
74
60
so bears or loss of sponshorpship should aim for 74 stops. Hitting 74's and staying below for extended period of time 1 hr bar...implies 60's.
intraday tic support
85
77
74
60
so bears or loss of sponshorpship should aim for 74 stops. Hitting 74's and staying below for extended period of time 1 hr bar...implies 60's.
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