ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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oscillation between the 50 and 200 day ma, the first retest usually fails, and the price never really approaches the 50. 1496 stops on sep futures will be blown, leading to the 1528 retest.

study the previous fear cycles and how they progressed on this chart.
 

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If we get a hard sell in the morning -- I'm also gonna be selling puts. I remember the vicious bounce we had the last time -- something similar can easily play out early this week.
 
Quote from atticus:

Long ES and ER2 from 145900 and 77400. I expect to convert to synthetic straddles on 10-20 handle rallies, and eventually synthetic butterflies.
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Out of half of the ES position at 66.50, +7.50. I am seeing no bid to vol on the upside strikes [as expected], so I'm not being paid to hold a full ES position. The ER2 market in the 800 Sep calls is where it stood at the open on Globex [20.00 x 25.00], with futures +6.00. I'll leg the remaining ES futures to synth flies at the open. I will convert the ER2 if futures are >779.00.
 
Quote from 2006:

ES options spreads overnight are brutal.

Looking for a little pop here to get flat. Need to nap for a few hours.
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Yeah, I'm not interested in execution, only a fairval indication. I need to move >100, so filling paper isn't going to happen overnight.
 
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