Yes, but those 20% or more bear market rallies were something to behold.
ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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Yes, but those 20% or more bear market rallies were something to behold.
The GDP number and Friday, offered a window for short covering. And there were attempts made throughout the trading day. But if you look at the intraday 5 minute, there seems to be a collusive effort to paint a bearish close and kill the market.
There are some major whales swimming in this market at the moment, most of the time they are very controlled and seek to entrain the market with a upward bias.
But intermittently there are these downdrafts of such swiftness, that can be stunning in proportions to the day to day entrainment of the trend.
Keep an eye on the 200 and 250 day MA on cash. Ultimately the parties that started this if it continues will be killing themselves. The CFTC knows who these whales are.
There is another scenario, that this move is sanctioned, so that the FED can cut rates next year. This gives room for the FED to move, where as before they faced global asset inflation. With the election coming up the GOP needs a rising market and FED easing.
If this is a sanctioned move, the market will reverse and oscillate around the 200 day and 250 day MA, and proceed to move higher and eventually hit the recent highs around elections.
There are some major whales swimming in this market at the moment, most of the time they are very controlled and seek to entrain the market with a upward bias.
But intermittently there are these downdrafts of such swiftness, that can be stunning in proportions to the day to day entrainment of the trend.
Keep an eye on the 200 and 250 day MA on cash. Ultimately the parties that started this if it continues will be killing themselves. The CFTC knows who these whales are.
There is another scenario, that this move is sanctioned, so that the FED can cut rates next year. This gives room for the FED to move, where as before they faced global asset inflation. With the election coming up the GOP needs a rising market and FED easing.
If this is a sanctioned move, the market will reverse and oscillate around the 200 day and 250 day MA, and proceed to move higher and eventually hit the recent highs around elections.
13666 was the number that put us to 14,000, shorted it yesterday off a bounce too! Will be putting the retirement $$$$ to work again around 12666, about a 10% correction. Look for lots of action between the two.
If you guys have indepedent charting software, paint a 200 day exp low MA and a 250 day exp low MA on daily chart. Notice when price comes close to it, and when the crossovers were on the sp500 index.
=)
=)
Austin
Isn't that a bit early yet? july - October 2002 was the 2nd down leg of a full blown bear market. I would be looking at the start of bear markets and as stated the massive short squeeze rallies on any ounce of hope and bullish news (if indeed this is the start), who knows maybe we just crash come Monday :eek: Anyway - good post.
Remember Lucents fall from $84 to around $0.55. The most widely held stock in the USA if I remember correctly. Now that was PAIN.
Heres a recap
Can Rich McGinn Revive Lucent?
Innovative rivals and angry investors have the market leader on its heels
The bright light of an early June afternoon is flooding into the glass-walled office of Richard A. McGinn, matching the sunny mood of Lucent Technologies Inc.'s chief executive. Never mind that his company's stock is down 21% for the year. Forget that the telecom equipment giant stunned investors back in January 2000, when it said it would miss revenue targets for the quarter--lopping $23 billion off the company's market cap in a single day. Ever the optimist, McGinn has no doubt that Lucent (LU) will bounce back. ''I think that what you have is a normal reaction to a miss in a quarter,'' he says. ''Nokia had a miss a couple of years ago and has come back strong. Nortel had a down period a couple of years ago.''
Quick point here--
On the surface it may seem dumb to some folks here that I am on the sidelines. However, all I have lost here is opportunity at shorts. I have not lost real money. --The filter that I am now using by only trading with the trend as I perceive it, has me taking trades that are higher probability and in the long run will be more profitable. Now it could be argued that the trend is already down and I should be trading the short side. There is a strong case for this from JSSPMK using my own divergence methodology that just a short time ago, I would have been following. Now though, as I posted in the "Electic", I am more patient and wait for more confirmation. I still use divergences, but they are generally only used in the direction of the longer trend as entries or profit taking points. The longer trend is still up and so I look for long entries. Shorter term, the trend is down. Each person must decide for themselves what longer term means to them and then trade in that direction only. Day traders should have only been taking shorts the last half of the week of course, as their longer term is much shorter than mine. As a clue to how I define longer term, I would tell you this: During the market crash of 1987, the longer trend never reversed from being up. In the beginning of this decade, the trend did reverse to being down.
On the surface it may seem dumb to some folks here that I am on the sidelines. However, all I have lost here is opportunity at shorts. I have not lost real money. --The filter that I am now using by only trading with the trend as I perceive it, has me taking trades that are higher probability and in the long run will be more profitable. Now it could be argued that the trend is already down and I should be trading the short side. There is a strong case for this from JSSPMK using my own divergence methodology that just a short time ago, I would have been following. Now though, as I posted in the "Electic", I am more patient and wait for more confirmation. I still use divergences, but they are generally only used in the direction of the longer trend as entries or profit taking points. The longer trend is still up and so I look for long entries. Shorter term, the trend is down. Each person must decide for themselves what longer term means to them and then trade in that direction only. Day traders should have only been taking shorts the last half of the week of course, as their longer term is much shorter than mine. As a clue to how I define longer term, I would tell you this: During the market crash of 1987, the longer trend never reversed from being up. In the beginning of this decade, the trend did reverse to being down.
Quote from Buy1Sell2:
Action today created a MACD Histogram Bearish Divergence at the close today. However, no reaction lows have been violated longer term and the pattern was not as strong as I like. Does that mean that the market will not go down again Monday or even a lot Monday? No, but it simply means that I will stay on the sidelines for now looking for long entries as I view the longer term trend as still up.
This post from last Friday (page 2526) indicated what I was seeing on the charts and my sentiments. Obviously reaction lows were definitely taken out during the week. I simply repost this as an explanation of what I am doing now. I am not trying to catch the tops and bottoms as before--rather I am trading with the trend as I see it longer term, so I will be looking to get long at some point.
Quote from Buy1Sell2:
I have stopped myself out in aftermarket trading below the relatively minor support of 1555. I will be looking for fresh longs now. 33.50 pts to the good on that ES trade with full position on.
This post from page 2473 was my last trade to date on ES. It turns out that had I shorted there as well as stopping myself out of the long, I would have had a very good trade. I did not however and so have lost opportunity. On Monday, I am going to use a small position size (1 contract is all to start) and only use stops to enter and exit just above and below recent reaction points as I perceive them. I may from time to time add contracts (no Martingale). This is a version of Romik's flip flopping technique, although my stops will be much larger than what he does. This will be traded in real money (although in very small size so it's insignificant if there are losses) and we'll see how I do. These will never be paper trades and will be traded in the same account as the position trades. It will give me an opportunity to communicate with everyone as I await the proper long signal etc. --and who knows, I might make money!
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