ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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<i>"Austin
Isn't that a bit early yet? july - October 2002 was the 2nd down leg of a full blown bear market. I would be looking at the start of bear markets and as stated the massive short squeeze rallies on any ounce of hope and bullish news (if indeed this is the start), who knows maybe we just crash come Monday"</i>

I expect to see a series of short squeeze rallies in the medium future. If you review charts of July - Oct 2002, you'll see how a bear market correction unfolds. Several days of selling are interrupted by an afternoon pop (hammer candle) that squeezes all day the next. Bulls come out and trumpet an end to the selling, look at the ADV/DEC and volume, etc.

Within two - three sessions, that entire squeeze was erased and lower lows result. That's how bear markets unfold... violence and volatility going both ways.

We have no idea if this is merely another quick correction or an extended decline into year's end or further. We do know what to look for: sharp rallies that fail completely within one - three days. That is the act of institutions dumping endless supply on retail dipsters, aka distribution.

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It would have been nice to short Monday and cover at 4:14pm est Friday. That's pretty much a lottery ticket, no one can base a career on such. My week went Mon +5pts ES, Tue +12 ES, Wed +10 ES, Thu +42 ES, Fri +50 ES.

The return to "glory days" market action of 2002 caught me by surprise this week until Wednesday night. Thursday, we were ready. It's quite possible to see similar if not greater intraday ranges, swings and volatility to come. Both ways :D
 
Quote from Buy1Sell2:

I do want to ask a question here if I could. Did anyone sell short on Monday and hold short all week? Just curious.

nope :), I did manage to capture range more than ES offered via DAX daytrades :)
 
just as a upward market hits resistance and tests it multiple times before sliding, a downward market hits support and tests it multiple times before rising.

the dynamics of it are that the big money pools draw a line where they want to buy and buy at those levels large enough quantity to counter the selling pressure.

so keep an eye out, on a short term basis, the nonfarm payrolls poses some risk to the predominant trend or pressure, and people will look to take their leveraged exposure out of the market.

whether it be monday or tuesday, the selling pressure should ease up and await nonfarm payrolls, plus we have a fed meeting coming up august 7th. This poses further risk to overleveraged positions. You can bet that the FED will look to shift sentiment to the easing side. Otherwise Bernanke's thesis will come to fruition. For those who don't know, his thesis was on the Great Depression.

Liquidity in terms of volume traded is the highest when fear and greed are at their extreme, and for those who want to buy large quantities, its best time to get least slippage.
 
Long ES and ER2 from 145900 and 77400. I expect to convert to synthetic straddles on 10-20 handle rallies, and eventually synthetic butterflies.
 
Quote from atticus:

Long ES and ER2 from 145900 and 77400. I expect to convert to synthetic straddles on 10-20 handle rallies, and eventually synthetic butterflies.

I'm going to be aggressive when selling upside vegas -- vols will drop 300 into +15 on ES.
 
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