ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

[Spectre2007]

being short equity futures is one of the most dangerous things one can do for a intermediate term trend move.

as many shorts are learning. The buy on dip mentality is pretty strong even in the fund world.

to say that at this point in time the long term trend has shifted would be the only reason to be short. Trying to make scraps for a move down goes against probability.

 

[Sponger]

Quote from jagmot:

Sorry mb, all the people expecting the big drop at or below 1530 (including myself) didn't get it and had to close out the day and hit your stop. To avoid this happening to me in the last hour, I put a stop so that I at least get a little bit (got +1 point). If I feel strongly about a trade, I'll hold overnight and not have a stop but will also use a half size position.

Tomorrow, I will be looking at shorts in the 1540 area or longs in the 1515 area and just let the market come to me.

No stop holding an overnight position.....aren't you concerned that a macro event could gap the market strongly against your position, and then follow through in the US RTH next day? Even a small position? Are you hedged somehow? Just want some insight here.......

 

[Sponger]

Spooz Top, nice trade BTW

 

[mbusch]

Quote from Sponger:

No stop holding an overnight position.....aren't you concerned that a macro event could gap the market strongly against your position, and then follow through in the US RTH next day? Even a small position? Are you hedged somehow? Just want some insight here.......

What are you talking about? I'd never hold a position without a stop. If I did, my broker would have my head on a pike. In fact, I seldom set a stop more than 5 or 6 ticks away from my entry price. Stops seem to work just fine in the Globex, although since they trigger market orders I suppose there's a chance of a little slippage. Never been a problem for me.

 

[jagmot]

Quote from Sponger:

No stop holding an overnight position.....aren't you concerned that a macro event could gap the market strongly against your position, and then follow through in the US RTH next day? Even a small position? Are you hedged somehow? Just want some insight here.......

If I hold overnight, I only am long or short 1 position. If the ES contract were to move in 30 points in either direction it would wipe out less than 5% of my trading capital. I do not have any direct hedge. My portfolio is almost always Delta positive so in a sense I would be slightly hedged if I was short and the market was up big.

I always have a stop during intraday trades (if it is bigger than 1 lot), and I never turn a bad intraday trade into an overnight trade. That's where I have had drawdowns before.

I am always concerned that there could be a macro event that goes against me. I also do not hold the ES contract overnight on a regular basis.

EDIT: If there was a macro event, would a stop really save me? Say for instance you were long an ES prior to 9/11 and had a tight stop. The ES didn't trade down slowly in 5 or 10 minutes. The market opened way down and then proceeded to go further, so you would have been hit for a big loss either way.

 

[jagmot]

Quote from mbusch:

What are you talking about? I'd never hold a position without a stop. If I did, my broker would have my head on a pike. In fact, I seldom set a stop more than 5 or 6 ticks away from my entry price. Stops seem to work just fine in the Globex, although since they trigger market orders I suppose there's a chance of a little slippage. Never been a problem for me.

MB, he was talking about me. But I am curious, what broker are you using? I have IB and TOS. I am currently demoing Infinity AT and am liking the daytrading technology better than IB. And I wouldn't mind seperating the daytrading from the positional trades.

I rarely have problems with holding overnight, but then again I am conservative in my leverage and I trade multiple markets. For instance, say I'm trading 5 ES contracts, the initial margin (overnight) would be $17500, my own personal rule is that I would need to have $37,500 ($7500 per contract) margin available in my account.

 

[vertigo3]

Since there's no one making ANY comments on here, that's good enough for me. The trade day is over.

Enjoy the 4th of July holiday.

 

[apex82]

Quote from apex82:

its prudent to be on the sidelines or wait for the best possible low risk entry to protect your capital and maximize your gains. ABSOLUTELY nobody knows if this market is going higher or lower.. the only thing you as an individual can do is minimize your risk and stick your plan.

At this point I dont see any point at being short whatsoever unless you are already in from much higher prices. In my analysis the favour is to the upside because it offers the greatest probabilities and the best risk/reward. We have a very nice critical key zone 1501-1505 that was tested near the end of the day on friday. Buying came in a huge way. The next possible short term target is 1540 or much higher. Until this zone is broken to the downside I dont see any point at taking shorts unless you want to experience some volatile spikes against you probably shaking you out. If that zone is taken out I believe we are in for one serious correction. Until then.. I want to be long. Find the probable turning points that offer low risk entries... never chase the market. This way you are not a hero and get out asap with as little damage as possible and be patient for the next setup.

This is a prime example of never chasing the market.... let it come to you.

Just arrived home last night from my vacay... Looking forward to getting back to trading after the holiday.

Happy 4th...

B1S2 you long oil? You seem to position trade the commods at time. I'm in from 63 on august contract looking to ride this trend for the rest of the year.... hurricane season is just around the corner

 

[mbusch]

Quote from apex82:

Just arrived home last night from my vacay... Looking forward to getting back to trading after the holiday.

And I, for one, am looking forward to watching you do it. Welcome home!

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Quote from apex82:



B1S2 you long oil? You seem to position trade the commods at time. I'm in from 63 on august contract looking to ride this trend for the rest of the year.... hurricane season is just around the corner

Nice entry on the oil. I have not been keeping up my other journals real well, so I'll update here on what my current positions other than ES are:

Long Sep Euro FX from 1.35050
Long Sep Yen Futures from .82580
Long Oct Sugar from 967
Long Sep Aussie Future from .84550
Short Novie Beans from 8.844
Long Auggie Heating Oil from 2.0145
Long Sep British Pound Future from 1.9979

In addition. I have closed out losers in Swiss Franc (1200 roughly per contract), Auggie Hoggies (400 per), Cocoa (about 900 per)and 10 yr notes ( I have to look back and see exactly , but I think it was a little over 1000 per).

There have been winners as well --most notably in Corn.

As you can see from my current list, I am at the point where I would rather not enter another market right now. Crude does look pretty trendy though--