ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

[Spectre2007]

bonds, where is the next likely point where bonds can stall?

5.3?% on the 10 year. If you look at the last fear cycle in bonds after the bonds breached the previous peak, the yield moved ..25% more then the previous peak.

so 5.3 something appears to be next likely challenge.

 

[Spectre2007]

keep an eye on the 240 tic trendy its about to break overnight session.

 

[steve46]

Hey;

I thought this might be a good time to look at the 60 min chart

Although I did not post on the open, I did trade later in the day. As mentioned before I watch the 60 min chart for clues as to how the day will unfold. This one was an easy day to be sure, especially the afternoon. I am sorry I missed it.

I notice that some of you were wondering why the market reversed later in the day..I have suggested that size players (institutions, funds, hedgers, etc) are probably selling inventory. Those of you who watch the dom and have it set to size (>200) would have seen some very big size hitting the boards.

Also you should be aware of the influence of foreign markets. For instance the Japanese market will probably be hit by interest rate changes in the next day or so..

 

[steve46]

Here is the 5 min chart

As before notice how this market signals high and low "swings" with buying and selling tails. For those into the research I suggest checking the Historic average volume against today's candles.

As before I have left my S/R lines in from the 60 min chart

Note how price tests the upper line then fails, confirming the first short trade. Then see it happen again as the second short trade unfolds. On the next trade, a long, price tests, fails, pulls back and then takes out the lower line. I called this long entry (at 1520.25) closed out at 1524.25 and went to a doc's appt.

The short entries at the end of the day are really pretty simple.

Check ya later

Steve

 

[4re]

Looks like all the indexes have a nice bearish continuation pennant going.

Looks like you guys have been doing some very nice trading lately.

Good trading to all of you

 

[tommymoose]

Now I think we can all agree that the SPX cash is sitting right on the 50-day SMA, correct?

 

[apex82]

Market closed right in the key critical zone at 1507.50-1508.50. If it can hold this tomorrow we should get a retest of the june 4th highs over the next week or so. If it does not hold and is broken to the downside expect a move down to 1491-1492 before the next decent bounce. If this zone is broken, odds would be that we put in an intermediate top and finally an end to this bull run meaning a 10% correction and most likely greater. This would mean much more volatility and vertical spikes.. bear markets are a whole new beast. This top is coming in at some major time cycles and very bearish seasonality. I suggest waiting for some buying to come in before getting long in this market, dont try to be a hero.

Support zones....

1507.50-1508.50

1491-1492

1457-1462

Due to the wednesday of expiration week odds call for one of the most volatile days of the month... Perfect scenario to get in on a trade in the morning and hold it for most of the day. The best scenario would be a shakeout to the downside, strong buying( steve's tails) and an entry to hold throughout the remainder of the day if not weeks to come.

 

[elovemer]

thanks for all posts... very insightful.

question..... "the dom" ? ?

also...
..are free bond market quotes available intraday ? is it as easy as ^txn quote..... to watch ?

thanks

Quote from steve46:

Hey;

Those of you who watch the dom and have it set to size (>200) would have seen some very big size hitting the boards.

 

[Spectre2007]

market is a peddler of fear and greed.

 

[Pekelo]

Anybody knows what caused the 7 pts rally since 5 am?