ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Quote from skippy:

This is really interesting, though....

we now have three different values for the same metric on the same instrument. give this fact, do such metrics have any meaning at all...

i mean, the 50 sma is of value as s/r resistance only insofar as everyone agrees on what it is. am i right? and if no one can agree, well, for heaven's sake, what's the point of paying it any attention?
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You bring on the immortal argument of whether a human or computer generated line on a chart has meaning or is merely a self fulfilling prophecy.

Personally, I believe lines, ma, etc have value, but only short-term. Since the market is made up of human beings, it is valid to presume loyalty wanes over time. Hence short-term lines on a screen have meaning. Long-term lines are remembered when brought into view, but there may not be sustained mass loyalty any longer to fulfill the prophecy. jmho

Osorico :) [playing (mostly)long side, YM +ER]
 
Actually the longer term ma's also indicate longer term support for a move.

Using 50 ma and above shows that the market has supported a move over several days.

The longer term ma is used by players with a different time frame reference. These players are often the ones that come in because they identify value at the tails of an intraday chart. If not for them, their would be no follow through on a move past new highs or taking out new lows.

Of course these are issues you should have researched before using them....

Steve
 
Quote from osorico:

You bring on the immortal argument of whether a human or computer generated line on a chart has meaning or is merely a self fulfilling prophecy.

Personally, I believe lines, ma, etc have value, but only short-term. Since the market is made up of human beings, it is valid to presume loyalty wanes over time. Hence short-term lines on a screen have meaning. Long-term lines are remembered when brought into view, but there may not be sustained mass loyalty any longer to fulfill the prophecy. jmho

Osorico :) [playing (mostly)long side, YM +ER]
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Yes, but here's what I find so freakin' disturbing....

I went long at 1513, based on two things....

1) strength metrics I've homebrewed, which made their appearances at...

2) what I thought (erroneously) was the 50 sma.

Now, obviously, the trade is working rather nicely. But what bugs the hell out of me is the "erroneous" part. "Luck" is not my idea of a robust strategy.

Think about it: You and I have completely different sma readings, and we're both using mainstream data source/charting packages. Isn't this faintly disturbing?
 
Quote from apex82:

If you want to trade in a vacum then the 50 EMA is the only moving average I would ever consider as entry on any market or any timeframe. However, it is best to use all tools to maximize your performance.
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agreed here is a monthly chart of $INDU, there are only three periods when you should have had a short basis. I would imagine a smart money manager would hedge below this line in the sand or exit. :cool:
 

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Quote from skippy:

This is really interesting, though....

we now have three different values for the same metric on the same instrument. give this fact, do such metrics have any meaning at all...

i mean, the 50 sma is of value as s/r resistance only insofar as everyone agrees on what it is. am i right? and if no one can agree, well, for heaven's sake, what's the point of paying it any attention?
More...

imo the cash is gospel, trading instruments like futures and even the spy will invariably modify the cash number. ma's and trendlines rarely hold to within a point, s&r's do, though.
 
Quote from osorico:

You bring on the immortal argument of whether a human or computer generated line on a chart has meaning or is merely a self fulfilling prophecy.

Personally, I believe lines, ma, etc have value, but only short-term. Since the market is made up of human beings, it is valid to presume loyalty wanes over time. Hence short-term lines on a screen have meaning. Long-term lines are remembered when brought into view, but there may not be sustained mass loyalty any longer to fulfill the prophecy. jmho

Osorico :) [playing (mostly)long side, YM +ER]
More...

Yes, but here's what I find so freakin' disturbing....

I went long at 1513, based on two things....

1) strength metrics I've homebrewed, which made their appearances at...

2) what I thought (erroneously) was the 50 sma.

Now, obviously, the trade is working rather nicely. But what bugs the hell out of me is the "erroneous" part. "Luck" is not my idea of a robust strategy.

Think about it: You and I have completely different sma readings, and we're both using mainstream data source/charting packages. Isn't this faintly disturbing?
 
Luck isn't my idea of a robust strategy either

Longer term ma's show support for longer term moves of several day's duration (depending on the length of the ma)

They are useful because they show you where a move was supported by what I call "other timeframe" participants. These are generally size players who support a move by identifying value and comming in at the extremes. If not for those folks their would be no follow through.

The trick is to understand WHO is watching longer term ma's and to know how to use the data.

Probably a good idea to research this prior to trading it.

Steve
 
Quote from skippy:

Yes, but here's what I find so freakin' disturbing....

I went long at 1513, based on two things....

1) strength metrics I've homebrewed, which made their appearances at...

2) what I thought (erroneously) was the 50 sma.

Now, obviously, the trade is working rather nicely. But what bugs the hell out of me is the "erroneous" part. "Luck" is not my idea of a robust strategy.

Think about it: You and I have completely different sma readings, and we're both using mainstream data source/charting packages. Isn't this faintly disturbing?
More...

But both readings are in the ballpark of their respective underlying, so they are not so different as they might appear.

now if you are backtesting on continuous data using ma's going back for a while, that can be highly unreliable.
 
Luck isn't my idea of a robust strategy either

Longer term ma's show support for longer term moves of several day's duration (depending on the length of the ma)

They are useful because they show you where a move was supported by what I call "other timeframe" participants. These are generally size players who support a move by identifying value and comming in at the extremes. If not for those folks there would be no follow through.

The trick is to understand WHO is watching longer term ma's and to know how to use the data.

Probably a good idea to research this prior to trading it.

Steve

I am out of my long here. Waiting for the squawk....
 
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