ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Finally, my 5 min chart. This chart has the horizontal lines showing S/R from the 60 min chart.

Notice how price moves around those lines. As you may remember from my previous charts I look for buy tails to signal a long entry. Here we had two of them.

The entry is pretty clear (in hindsight of course it is) and the profit target is the most recent high from the 60 min chart.

I hope newbies can find some direction from this. Should anyone object, just have the mod remove the posts.

Steve

Edit;

Previously I posted the historic average volume levels, on a 15 min basis. If I were a student trying to learn more about this, I would be looking to see how those volume levels compare to today's. Just a thought.
 

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keep an eye on the utilities average. Its good indicator of sentiment similar to the 10 year yield. My feeling is we test the highs to confirm any move before making a meaningful decision as the summer unwinds.
 

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Quote from steve46:

I mention it because one of the subjects I was thinking of commenting on is how to orient yourself to the open. There are a number of ways to do it and if there is interest I can open a thread elsewhere.
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I would be very interested in reading your comments on that subject - or any other relevant topic for that matter! :) Which raises the question - how much time do you spend in preparation outside of market hours? My guess is that you and others spend a considerable amount of time reviewing charts, levels and processing data. It takes me quite a bit of time just to organize pivot points and fib levels on several contracts and I am apparently not tracking a fraction of the things that others are looking at.

p.s. At the bottom right of each post are three buttons, 1. edit/delete, 2. Quote, and 3. Complain. Use that button #3. There is no reason to even reply to or "feed" a troll post.
 
Okay

I spend about an hour prior to the open "preparing" for the open

I am not your best model however, because it is probably not necessary to do that. I am a type A person and I usually go a bit overboard on the prep

What is more important than "how much time" is "What do you look at"..and that is another story..

On waking up, I have my computers on 24/7 so I connect to the Internet and update charts. I look at the overnights (Singapore and Germany) I check the news, and I look at the PREM. Since I already have my game plan outlined on my desk, I simply compare my plan to the data. I make a couple of phone calls to friends in the east to get the first "market call". For those who don't know, the markets are "called to open" prior to the actual open. This phrase has been in use a long time. It means that prior to the open the big players have lines of communication open to the market (to the floors/pits, brokers, etc). For the equities market, hidden communications are flying back and forth from big players to brokers and the floor, expressing "interest" in specific issues. These communications always get leaked to the outside world and eventually even folks like me, get word of how the market is expected to open. Based on changes in news, leaks regarding reports, brokerage interest on the buy and sell side, the markets are "called" or expected to open at a certain level. What is important to the player (all the players) is how far from that call the markets do open.. If they open above, it is like an invisible "buying tail" and it has the effect of a gap open. If the markets open lower than the call, it is like an invisible "selling tail" and has the effect of a gap down. There is a lot more to it. I just want to provide the general idea.

Steve
 
Quote from steve46:

Finally, my 5 min chart. This chart has the horizontal lines showing S/R from the 60 min chart.

Notice how price moves around those lines. As you may remember from my previous charts I look for buy tails to signal a long entry. Here we had two of them.

The entry is pretty clear (in hindsight of course it is) and the profit target is the most recent high from the 60 min chart.

I hope newbies can find some direction from this. Should anyone object, just have the mod remove the posts.

Steve



Edit;

Previously I posted the historic average volume levels, on a 15 min basis. If I were a student trying to learn more about this, I would be looking to see how those volume levels compare to today's. Just a thought.
More...

The entry actually is pretty obvious (I took it). What was hard was not getting shaken out after the reversal and then the big red bar at around 11 EST (I WAS shaken out). Fortunately was able to get back on later and then short after the failed rally around 2:15.

It's never as easy as it looks, and I would have a fortune if I had all the points I have left on the table.
 
Yes I understand your point.

That is why I often scale in to a position. Psychologically it is easier (for me anyway) to hold a smaller position while it wiggles around.

I have found this to be important for markets whose point value is high like the Mini Russell for instance. It allows me to use a wider stop.

I have two horizontal lines in place from the 60 min chart. They are S/R from previous days. I categorize entries such that a long right at or just above the lower line is what I call "favorable entry". I figure if I can get filled right there, I can do two things, one, I can use a tight stop, and two I can trader bigger size. Long entry closer to the upper line means I have to trade smaller and I have to use a wider stop. I have shown how to find and place these lines previously.
 
Tues, 6/12/07 Intraday price levels
based on 10 RTH sessions

* = significant

Code: 
[b]
ES         YM       ER       NQ[/b]
1537.50*   13671    854.6    1936.00
1534.25    13665*   853.8*   1934.00
1531.00    13658    850.0*   1933.00
1528.50*   13589    847.0    1930.00
1522.75    13578*   845.8    1927.50
1522.75    13537    841.9*   1919.25*
1520.00    13522    839.8    1907.00
1518.25    13507    835.7    1900.50
1517.25    13496    833.4    1895.00
1516.00    13469    830.6    1891.50
1514.25    13455             
1509.50*   13412*

Some comments regarding NQ... for the last month or so, NQ has exhibited wide variances in the different calculations used to determine equilibrium levels. Rarely(based on memory)do large variances occur for an instrument, let alone for extended periods. The above NQ levels are mostly blended calculations. Possibly related, I find it interesting NQ made fresh LOD on Monday near eod. No other index followed suit. Not enough factual info to make anything out of it, but interesting nonetheless. I will be backtesting this large variance scenario shortly.

Good trading to all,
Trade what you see, not what you think.
Osorico :)
 
Quote from steve46:

Yes I understand your point.

That is why I often scale in to a position. Psychologically it is easier (for me anyway) to hold a smaller position while it wiggles around.

I have found this to be important for markets whose point value is high like the Mini Russell for instance. It allows me to use a wider stop.

I have two horizontal lines in place from the 60 min chart. They are S/R from previous days. I categorize entries such that a long right at or just above the lower line is what I call "favorable entry". I figure if I can get filled right there, I can do two things, one, I can use a tight stop, and two I can trader bigger size. Long entry closer to the upper line means I have to trade smaller and I have to use a wider stop. I have shown how to find and place these lines previously.
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Yes, I have come to realise that it is a lot easier psychologically and therefore makes it a lot more practical to scale out of a position. Some will disagree. I just think intraday it is very difficult to keep whole position on, as one really has to be a true master of markets as they can be so deceiving and intraday trends that last whole trading session do not happen that often, still works in DAX, but not so much in ES for some reason.
 
Quote from Buy1Sell2:

I will short today at 1518.50 on a stop. I will keep raising that entry stop if the market runs higher.--
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I read in this journal that you favor divergences, so are you seeing this also and is that your reasoning behind switching long to a short?

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1498133>
 

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