ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Quote from apex82:

Stopped out for 1pt temporary equity dip.... bastards

rentered short at 1513.25 stop above highs

3 tick stop

same targets
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Here is the reasoning behind my trade... a very powerful pattern when it occurs at certain levels. I am not going to go into much detail about how and when to use it. Just look at major drops and you will see this occur a lot. It carries a lot of psychology to it which makes the move very swift as well.

Here it is on the the 1 minute chart
 

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Quote from Spectre2007:

the rationale is that the fed needs to seem to have control over the economy.

the fed speak will be one of slowing economy. so they can get the interest rate cuts underway. The dollar is destined to head to much lower levels historically, unless signs that a frugal president will enter the white house.

so tomorrow the fed speak will be one of 'slowing', the market can interpret it as the 'slowing economy' will start crimping margins.

there is a lot of overleveraged money in the market at the moment, and that money is ripe for institutional boys to use market swings to shake the novice money out.

most anyone who is long index futures, will pick round numbers to put their stops. 1500 being a big round number in ES.

so the big boys can use the FED as a excuse to gap the futures down when the statement comes out, to hit the overleveraged stops.

its just one scenario. the other is the market continues to rally and rally and rally.

chris
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Thanks Spectre

I agree and was wondering how you came to that conclusion.
I on the other hand see it on the charts but will have to confirm at tomorrows open.

BB
 
I dont quite follow what I'm looking for in those charts. All I see is the series of peaks and troughs of a normal rally and then a trough that doesnt hold out. Can you explain what I should be seeing?
 
Quote from apex82:

Ok, ya I just dont understand how someone can scalp effectively when you have to give a tick slippage on the way in and out on every trade. The ES has to trade through your price to get filled.
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I scalp the ES with nothing but limit orders. I did 6 scalps today, with some entries being scaled in. If I'm going short at the market, I hit the bid and then cover by placing an order on the bid. So, slippage is 1 tick. Going long, I take the offer, and cover with an order on the offer. If I want price to come to me on an entry, then, of course, my order is at the offer if I want to go short, and on the bid if I want to go long. No slippage there. The only exception to this is if the trade is going or appears it is going to go against me, and I want out NOW!

I know you have said before that with the ES price has to trade though to get filled. Of course, that's not exactly true. What must happen obviously, is that the contracts in front of you must either get filled or get pulled. But, that's the same with any SIF. Yeah, there are more contracts on the B/A with the ES, but there are more contracts being traded as well. Any way, that's how I see it.
 
a falling dollar has been inflationary, relative to a basket of commodities.

but a falling dollar isnt neccessarily bad, since debt payments will paid out in cheaper dollars.

but reported inflation numbers have been softer then what the commodities actually imply.

it means the producers are unable to pass the costs of production onto the consumers. That is if you believe the reported numbers.

the fed and administration, can easily pull numbers out of the hat, since statistics is a imperfect science. Sometimes these numbers are fudged to contain expectations in the marketplace.

if you look at the bond market, rates have been relatively low, and since the 10 year note has been a tight trading range, the impact on housing has been less, since ARM's are based on the 10 year note yields as a benchmark.

this is ideal for the fed. What the fed can't afford is a runaway economy, when the fed itself has changed it tune one of a softening economy. If the FED changes its tune again, then more volatility enters the marketplace and risk premiums will be readjusted. So expectations themselves can curtail the economy. And thats what the FED has been doing historically, trying to control expectations.

The rate cuts will come just in time for the new presidential cycle. But usually once the FED is seen to be cutting rates, initially the equity market collapses then rebounds as the stimulating aspect of monetary easing takes hold.

Bond yields will head higher relative to the short end, the yield curves will be less inverted. Gold does well in when monetary easing takes place also. And the dollar itself will fall. Since the US markets will be ahead of the global cycle, the dollar can be expected to rise when the FED is seen to be done easing, and foreign nations enter a less hawkish period. By that time, the policies of the new president will become clear, whether he is favorable to the dollar or bearish.

Either way if a correction does occur its just a intermediate term one. The bull cycle is here to stay secondary to global cycles and demand from the new economies coming online mainly Russia and East European/BRIC countries.
 
Here is what I am seeing for the near future. An ascending triangle. If you are looking long term there is still no reason to look for shorts as B1S2 has been saying for months.
 

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Quote from mbusch:

Stick a fork in me, I'm done!

16:30:00 Short ES at 1513.75, exited 07:43:31 at 1509.25 (+4.50 points) cum +4.50
08:25:10 Short ES at 1510.00, exited 10:50:38 at 1507.75 (+2.25 points) cum +6.75
10:57:28 Short ES at 1508.25, exited 11:08:00 at 1508.00 (+0.25 points) cum +7.00
11:15:17 Long ES at 1507.25, exited 11:15:26 at 1508.00 (+0.75 points) cum +7.75
11:48:10 Long ES at 1507.50, exited 11:49:11 at 1508.25 (+0.75 points) cum +8.50
12:20:12 Short ES at 1508.25, exited 12:47:12 at 1510.50 (-2.25 points) cum +6.25
13:53:19 Long ES at 1510.75, exited 11:10:40 at 1511.75 (+1.00 points) cum +7.25
14:14:27 Short ES at 1512.00, exited 14:15:18 at 1511.25 (+0.75 points) cum +8.00
14:57:56 Long ES at 1511.25, exited 15:04:13 at 1512.00 (+0.75 points) cum +8.75
15:29:47 Short ES at 1513.00, exited 16:11:50 at 1512.00 (+1.00 points) cum +9.75

Close enough to a perfect ten for me. I'm outta here. Tomorrow's another day. Good trading, all!
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very nice. great scalping in action. good to see.
 
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