ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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market is resilient. some of the brandname stocks look very good technically.
Just wanted to give an update of my short-term (dailys) cycle work.
First, a little backpatting...
Following are excerpts of my 2/25/07 cycle-work post. 2 days before the debacle.
Like I said, it's not the grail, but time and again it proves itself in my toolbox.
So where is we now...
The acknowledgement of the down lasted slightly longer AND was quite violent. The ensuing up move into the first full week of March has occurred as well, although as of today, is slightly extended cyclically speaking.
Before I continue, just a reminder, this analysis is based purely on my proprietary short-term cycle work with no other inputs.
The next 10-14 trading days point down.
The previous valley (the debacle happened 11th hour into the cycle and extended) and previous peak (into the first full week of March, which as of today is extended) gives way to an alternate scenario... the anticipated down move fails to be acknowledged. Segment failure has high probability of producing extreme moves. It's important to recognize that unlike the cycle period in which the debacle occurred, which was the tail of a poorly defined multiple segment(dn/up/dn), this anticipated down is well defined, single segment.
Here's just enough cycle stats to make the point...
Normal segment following two extended segments ... < 68%
Extended segment following two extended segments ... < 11%
Segment Failure ... < 7%
Segment failure resulting in normal/minimal counter-move ... < 35%
Segment failure resulting in extreme counter-move ... < 65%
Extended (or curtailed) segments and/or failures provide insight into internals not readily available through other TA.
Even with the inconclusive analysis, there will be some further clues.
1) Watch all US indexes carefully. For now, the indexes remain synchronized. This would be an ideal place/time cyclically for this to to break! Non-cyclic case in point... Today, DOWCash/YM and RUTCash/ER took out 3/9/07 highs. SPCash/ES and COMPCash/NQ did not. interestingly, it was NQ and ER that tipped-off the debacle. ES/NQ is a somewhat scary combo at this time, to plow the road??
2) A lower intraday low (note: not a close) vs the debacle intraday low (note: not the close) on any of the indexes, will confirm this down cycle for that index. The critical aspect is the when, if at all it happens... if it's 11th hour of the cycle, sustained downside may be limited (11% chance of extending). If it happens say within the next 2 days, assuming it happens at all, the move has 68% to be sustained for the duration of the expected cycle, and for the cycle to normalize.
As usual, not bull or bear.
Play what you see,
Osorico
First, a little backpatting...
Following are excerpts of my 2/25/07 cycle-work post. 2 days before the debacle.
Like I said, it's not the grail, but time and again it proves itself in my toolbox.
So where is we now...
The acknowledgement of the down lasted slightly longer AND was quite violent. The ensuing up move into the first full week of March has occurred as well, although as of today, is slightly extended cyclically speaking.
Before I continue, just a reminder, this analysis is based purely on my proprietary short-term cycle work with no other inputs.
The next 10-14 trading days point down.
The previous valley (the debacle happened 11th hour into the cycle and extended) and previous peak (into the first full week of March, which as of today is extended) gives way to an alternate scenario... the anticipated down move fails to be acknowledged. Segment failure has high probability of producing extreme moves. It's important to recognize that unlike the cycle period in which the debacle occurred, which was the tail of a poorly defined multiple segment(dn/up/dn), this anticipated down is well defined, single segment.
Here's just enough cycle stats to make the point...
Normal segment following two extended segments ... < 68%
Extended segment following two extended segments ... < 11%
Segment Failure ... < 7%
Segment failure resulting in normal/minimal counter-move ... < 35%
Segment failure resulting in extreme counter-move ... < 65%
Extended (or curtailed) segments and/or failures provide insight into internals not readily available through other TA.
Even with the inconclusive analysis, there will be some further clues.
1) Watch all US indexes carefully. For now, the indexes remain synchronized. This would be an ideal place/time cyclically for this to to break! Non-cyclic case in point... Today, DOWCash/YM and RUTCash/ER took out 3/9/07 highs. SPCash/ES and COMPCash/NQ did not. interestingly, it was NQ and ER that tipped-off the debacle. ES/NQ is a somewhat scary combo at this time, to plow the road??
2) A lower intraday low (note: not a close) vs the debacle intraday low (note: not the close) on any of the indexes, will confirm this down cycle for that index. The critical aspect is the when, if at all it happens... if it's 11th hour of the cycle, sustained downside may be limited (11% chance of extending). If it happens say within the next 2 days, assuming it happens at all, the move has 68% to be sustained for the duration of the expected cycle, and for the cycle to normalize.
As usual, not bull or bear.
Play what you see,
Osorico
order volume is quite low at the start
Ah, back to trading.
Trend is obviously down (intra-day), but the market(s) is(are) finding support (at least the one's that I'm monitoring) at their previous day's low.
While I'll probably be looking to sell any retrace if we get it, it's quite possible that we'll have another ping-pong day ahead of us, however, as of right now, the markets are not firming up (check back in an hour ).
JJ
Trend is obviously down (intra-day), but the market(s) is(are) finding support (at least the one's that I'm monitoring) at their previous day's low.
While I'll probably be looking to sell any retrace if we get it, it's quite possible that we'll have another ping-pong day ahead of us, however, as of right now, the markets are not firming up (check back in an hour
).JJ
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