ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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We'll just keep an eye on it and see. It's really not that big a deal to me right now anyway. I haven't been watching my charts much here lately. I am mostly flat right now. Just one trade on WMT going and it isn't doing well at this time.
 
Quote from romik:

But just consider this, IF you had $1m to manage (and that is not a huge amount, I was making almost that much on average every year when I had a restaurant) how unsafe would you say it would be starting with 1 contract & adding upon every losing trade?

EDIT: Why do you think casinos have 'ceiling' bets?
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You really don't understand why the question is being asked, do you? If you really believe in the merits of what you wrote, you might as well put your money into treasuries -- what is the point of trading so small that you can just increase size to get your losses back? If you are in the same boat as b1s2, and have all the money you will ever need (you from your prior businesses), then I'll say congratulations on your past achievements, and enjoy the entertainment you can currently afford with the markets.

The irony is, for someone who will continue to maintain this kind of attitude towards trading, you are actually doing things in the best way possible for you. If you think the ideal trading method is playing roulette at the casino for pennies with a million-dollar account, then by all means continue to do so. But please don't pretend you are playing a game with an 'edge' via position sizing/money management.

Thanks to you and b1s2 for being patient with me in answering my questions.
 
Quote from illiquid:

You really don't understand why the question is being asked, do you? If you really believe in the merits of what you wrote, you might as well put your money into treasuries -- what is the point of trading so small that you can just increase size to get your losses back? If you are in the same boat as b1s2, and have all the money you will ever need (you from your prior businesses), then I'll say congratulations on your past achievements, and enjoy the entertainment you can currently afford with the markets.

The irony is, for someone who will continue to maintain this kind of attitude towards trading, you are actually doing things in the best way possible for you. If you think the ideal trading method is playing roulette at the casino for pennies with a million-dollar account, then by all means continue to do so. But please don't pretend you are playing a game with an 'edge' via position sizing/money management.

Thanks to you and b1s2 for being patient with me in answering my questions.
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Quote from romik:

... I guess what this method can prove is that one does not necessarily need an edge...
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On another hand I do not understand why do you consider it inappropriate to trade with 1 contract & adding size? Why do you consider it 'revenge trading'? Why do you compare it to "playing roulette for pennies"? And how many contracts would you have traded per trade?
 
US Political, Economic Calendar - Week Ahead

***Friday is options expiration

All dates are in ET.


Tuesday, January 16, 2007
ET/GMT Expected Previous
0830/1330 Jan NY Fed Mfg Index 19.5 23.1
1315/1815 UN Secy Gen Ban meets with Pres Bush in
Washington
1700/2200 Jan 14 ABC/Washington Post Consumer Confidence -5
Index

Wednesday, January 17, 2007
ET/GMT Expected Previous
0700/1200 Jan 12 MBA Refinancing Index +17.3%
0745/1245 Jan 13 ICSC Chain Store Sales +0.7%
0830/1330 Dec PPI +0.5% +2.0%
0830/1330 Dec PPI, ex-food and energy +0.2% +1.3%
0855/1355 Jan 13 Redbook Retail Sales Index +1.7%
0900/1400 Nov Tsy Intl Capital Flows $62.2B
0915/1415 Dec Indus Production +0.1% +0.2%
0915/1415 Dec Capacity Utilization 81.8% 81.8%
1300/1800 Jan NAHB Housing Index 32
1300/1800 Fed Gov Mishkin speaks on "The Role of
House Prices in Formulating Monetary
Policy" in New York
1400/1900 Fed's Beige Book
1450/1950 San Francisco Fed Pres Yellen speaks on
the economic outlook in Scottsdale,
Ariz.
1845/2345 St. Louis Fed Pres Poole speaks on "The
GSEs: Where Do We Stand?" in Brentwood,
Mo.

Thursday, January 18, 2007
ET/GMT Expected Previous
0800/1300 Cleveland Fed Pres Pianalto speaks on
the regional economy in Dayton, Ohio
0830/1330 Dec CPI +0.4% unch
0830/1330 Dec CPI, ex-food and energy +0.2% unch
0830/1330 Dec Housing Starts -0.5% +6.7%
0830/1330 Jan 13 Jobless Claims +16K -26K
1000/1500 Jan 6 DJ-BTMU Business Barometer -2.0%
1030/1530 Jan 12 US Energy Dept Crude Oil Stocks (in -5M
barrels)
1030/1530 Jan 12 US Energy Dept Distillate Stocks (in +5.4M
barrels)
1030/1530 Jan 12 US Energy Dept Gasoline Stocks (in +3.8M
barrels)
1200/1700 Jan Philadelphia Fed Business Index 3.0 -2.3
1630/2130 Money Supply
N/A Fed Chmn Bernanke testifies before U.S.
Senate Budget Committee in Washington
1915/0015 Fed Gov Bies speaks on the economic
outlook and the mortgage market in
Tucson, Ariz.

Friday, January 19, 2007
ET/GMT Expected Previous
0800/1300 Richmond Fed Pres Lacker speaks on the
2007 economic outlook at the Risk
Management Assn's annual economic
outlook breakfast in Richmond
1000/1500 Jan University of Michigan Consumer 92.0 91.7
Sentiment Index, prelim
1030/1530 Jan 12 US Energy Dept Natural Gas Stocks (in -49
billion cubic feet)
1315/1815 Kansas City Fed Pres Hoenig speaks on
the economic outlook in Kansas City

Monday, January 22, 2007
ET/GMT Expected Previous
1000/1500 Dec Chicago Fed Natl Activity Index -0.26
1000/1500 Dec Conference Board Leading Econ +0.1%
Indicators
1430/1930 San Francisco Fed Pres Yellen speaks on
the economic outlook in Reno, Nev.
 
Daytrading ES, i suggest going in with "your" same sized bet and getting out with same sized bet. In my experience trading same size keeps your head "leveled" and you do not focus on the size of the trade from adding on. I feel daytrading the ES animal from a 5 minute chart gives the trader plenty of action when said trader is a breakout trader looking to catch the intraday "runs".

For any daytrader to change size etc it is more a distraction. Why not keep size even all the time and focus on catching the moves, THATS where the money is. Part of daytrading is watching boring parts of the day, that allows you to visualize what is possibly coming. if one doubles up, etc, that skews the days action. Stay lEVEL, keep the mind tuned and honed to price action, NOT the size of the bet.

Would you use same exits on a bet sized doubled the last bet? How many would be disciplined enough to even think trading different size was not going to make him/her trade different?

EDIT: THEN once you get consistent, you have the option to go bigger size. This works hand in hand with (as i do) sweeping the account monthly. Kind of like starting over every month fresh and focused because there are no profits in the account to fall back on. If you do this over and over, month after month, you will, should become very consistent. Thks,

Have fun trading.
 
Quote from romik:

On another hand I do not understand why do you consider it inappropriate to trade with 1 contract & adding size? Why do you consider it 'revenge trading'? Why do you compare it to "playing roulette for pennies"? And how many contracts would you have traded per trade?
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The objective of this kind of trading is not to maximize your edge; it is to last as long as you can in a losing game aka roulette for pennies. You can play for a very long time at a casino that would allow you to bet in penny increments, and it will seem at times as if you can consistently come out ahead if you start small enough, but it's still a negative expectancy game.

The strongest objection to this kind of system is that you are trapping yourself for the future. If you feel that you can never find a viable "edge", and have already resigned yourself to this fact, then trading in this manner will allow you to survive as long as possible. But this can only cause you grief if you are determined to improve your trading over time, as the habit of using leverage to rescue you from losing situations is difficult to break.

Trade to win, don't trade "not to lose". If you cannot achieve profitability trading a single contract only, take that as a warning symptom to go back to the drawing board, don't fiddle around with doubling/reversing on losers in effort to hide your results, you are only fooling yourself.
 
Quote from illiquid:

The objective of this kind of trading is not to maximize your edge; it is to last as long as you can in a losing game aka roulette for pennies. You can play for a very long time at a casino that would allow you to bet in penny increments, and it will seem at times as if you can consistently come out ahead if you start small enough, but it's still a negative expectancy game.

The strongest objection to this kind of system is that you are trapping yourself for the future. If you feel that you can never find a viable "edge", and have already resigned yourself to this fact, then trading in this manner will allow you to survive as long as possible. But this can only cause you grief if you are determined to improve your trading over time, as the habit of using leverage to rescue you from losing situations is difficult to break.

Trade to win, don't trade "not to lose". If you cannot achieve profitability trading a single contract only, take that as a warning symptom to go back to the drawing board, don't fiddle around with doubling/reversing on losers in effort to hide your results, you are only fooling yourself.
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So far, if you look, this works using same size. Casino is different as you win/lose 100$ stake, on the other hand if you hold on to a winning trade you can win x10 your initial stake, so there is a difference. For some reason, I get a feeling that you are not comfortable with staying in a trade. You made some sort of "mistake" on 29th Sep 06, what went wrong?

If I was to open another restaurant I would have to invest in the region of $500,000.00. What guarantees can anybody give me that this specific venture will be a success? And what would be the worst case scenario? And what is an average ROI in such a business?
 
Quote from romik:

So far, if you look, this works using same size. Casino is different as you win/lose 100$ stake, on the other hand if you hold on to a winning trade you can win x10 your initial stake, so there is a difference. For some reason, I get a feeling that you are not comfortable with staying in a trade. You made some sort of "mistake" on 29th Sep 06, what went wrong?
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You seem determined to change the subject. If it's a relatively poor day I posted on the p/l thread, then you would likely assume I stayed in a trade or two too long -- not the other way around. The difference between you and me is that I can learn from my losses, while you try your utmost to cover them up.
 
If any of you are mini russel traders the completion of the 5 wave move is much more clear. The symmetry is very precise which gives it a very high ranking. It traded up into the meat of the zone on monday, therefore it does not need to test those levels again before hitting the minimum projected target of 791.50-793. Note that is a minimum, it does not mean the market has to stop there. If the market can open at around this 803 area I would see 804.50-807 area becoming resistance where you could get a unit short on with a 1 or 2 pt stop. The only nuance is that at extremes like this, it will sometimes wash out the zone, ie move up to 708-709 and then reverse getting you out of the trade. There are several different entry techniques if you like more confirmation before jumping in the way of the train. All in all, you can see the abudant amount of CF's in the area. Typically the tuesday and or wednesday of option expiration week are the most volatile days of the month. Since we had a 3 day weekend, the range expansion day is more likely to occur tomorrow, wednesday, due to insitutions still on the sidelines. However, It is very possible that it could occur day. Watch the first 45 minutes to determine if the institutions are online as this is a prerequisite for a big move. I expect more of a range reduction day with a bearish bias. Good trading....
 

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