ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Quote from princessa:

i'm gonna break this response down into the various paragraphs written, by paragraph:

1. no, like you said, and like i said, i start small and add on, as long as i am on the right side of the trade (or believe i am). i usually add on in equal amounts, though, instead of adding on in ever increasing amounts, as you do.

2. okay, there's two things wrong with your statement. one, i am not a believer in the whipsaw method, so believing in it won't help me, because i don't. two, there's a difference between gutsy and just plain stupid. like you said, it depends on the account size and, i would add, it also depends on the level of experience of the player. for me, trying to do something above my level of experience would not be gutsy, that would just be plain stupid.

a self-proclaimed newbie such as myself should risk little, play by the rules, and only use a system she believes in. someone more experienced, which i believe you are, and perhaps with more capital to risk, which i have no idea if you have, may be well-advised to use your whipsaw system. moreover, ALL traders are wrong sometimes. so it's not imprudent to recognize that when you lose, your judgement has been wrong, at least for that trade. step back, regroup, and decide rationally what to do next.

3. i agree. since i am newbie and therefore not willing to risk much, this method would most likely not work for me. i also believe that when you have more, it's easier to be gutsy. moreover, when you have more experience, more options are realistically and reasonably open to you. agree that this method would not be advisable for my capitalization and level of experience. this was my point in the first post.

I understand you. I guess what this method can prove is that one does not necesarily need an edge.

On another note I remember my Mom trying out a sports tipping service, which actually had a proven positive track record. She quit after 5th consecutive loss, for sure that was bad luck to start off with 5 consecutive losses. Although she didn't lose much she quit, as she could not understand positive expectancy (I am not saying you don't understand probability) even though it was audited by a PWC affiliate & their track record was over last 5-6 years.
 
Romik,
Here is my ES chart showing what I was talking about. I know it is easy for me to say knowing that I am not trading the ES anymore just something I am going to be watching.
 

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Quote from 4re:

Romik,
Here is my ES chart showing what I was talking about. I know it is easy for me to say knowing that I am not trading the ES anymore just something I am going to be watching.

Why not straddle & strangle it? Which in fact, in principle, is pretty close to what I am currently doing by 'flip trading' :) Would you say that this option play a good money earner?
 
Quote from romik:

Why not straddle & strangle it? Which in fact, in principle, is pretty close to what I am currently doing by 'flip trading' :) Would you say that this option play a good money earner?

Good question. You could do that and make out very well but since we have not had a lot of movement in the markets in the past couple of months you might lose money with low IV on options. I have not been doing straddles or strangles recently for that reason. But this could be that move that starts things going again.

If you do that just make sure to buy April contracts to allow for plenty of time. Might make money on both sides of the trade that way.
 
Quote from 4re:

If you will look at this chart of the S&P index you will notice that the BB's are more tight than the ES so there should be a good move coming soon.

Problem is - where will it move to? Weekly channel looks different compared to daily & price's broken out of the channel a while back, is it time for a pullback towards 100ma on weekly?
 

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Quote from romik:

Problem is - where will it move to? Weekly channel looks different compared to daily & price's broken out of the channel a while back, is it time for a pullback towards 100ma on weekly?

That is a possibility. I would surely wait for the break of 1445 before I took a long position on it. Then by my rules it would be a long. If it doesn't breakout then it could easily drop to the 100ma.

On the news side of things I have heard rumblings of a possible rate hike around the corner as well. I don't trade off of news but I do keep my ears cleaned out just in case. Know what I mean?
 
Actually looking at the weekly I like the long side even more. If I calculate the bull flag it looks like around a 55 point move up. I don't know if I would trust that big of move but that is what it is showing.
 

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Quote from 4re:

That is a possibility. I would surely wait for the break of 1445 before I took a long position on it. Then by my rules it would be a long. If it doesn't breakout then it could easily drop to the 100ma.

On the news side of things I have heard rumblings of a possible rate hike around the corner as well. I don't trade off of news but I do keep my ears cleaned out just in case. Know what I mean?

I think it's been trading within a weekly channel for ~3 years now & outside the channel for ~2 months+. Makes more sense to go short once it falls back within that weekly channel & breaks reaction lows. Initiating a fresh swing long position upon a break of 1445 would be more risky IMO, but I am not that good on evaluating these type of situations. I just don't favour the odds.
 
Quote from Buy1Sell2:

I don't recall whether they were calls or not. What pages of the journal and handle are you referring to?

He pretty much crashed & burned on 2 calls under Babytrader handle, one long, one short, both pooped as far as I can recall. Then he said the day is not over yet :)
 
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