ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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The mental security you require involves a very high worst-case scenario cost.
I'll take a wild guess and say you don't close out the profitable position until, at minimum, the losses on your previous trades are "wiped clean"? As opposed to actually looking for targets that have nothing to do with your current P/L?
Quote from romik:
Correct, I can trade multiple contracts per trade if I wanted to, but with this approach starting small is key to making it. I still have my max loss per 1 specific range, but I will have 10 times more opportunities than you
Nothing works in the long run that is dependent upon "starting small" in order to add on losers. I hope you don't find this out the hard way after you go full-time or full-size, whichever.
10x more opportunities to feed your broker, more like it
Don't take things the wrong way, I'm trying to steer you clear of certain things that will hinder your progress. If I'm just a nuisance I will leave your journal be.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------Quote from illiquid:
Nothing works in the long run that is dependent upon "starting small" in order to add on losers. I hope you don't find this out the hard way after you go full-time or full-size, whichever.
10x more opportunities to feed your broker, more like it
Don't take things the wrong way, I'm trying to steer you clear of certain things that will hinder your progress. If I'm just a nuisance I will leave your journal be.
I think illiquid has a point here in terms of money management and managing losing trades.
Quote from illiquid:
Nothing works in the long run that is dependent upon "starting small" in order to add on losers. I hope you don't find this out the hard way after you go full-time or full-size, whichever.
10x more opportunities to feed your broker, more like it
Don't take things the wrong way, I'm trying to steer you clear of certain things that will hinder your progress. If I'm just a nuisance I will leave your journal be.
Guessing you are taking about the gamblers fallacy which undoubtedly leads to eventual total failure by increasing bets after losses.
However, I get the impression this is not what romik and b1s2 are talking about. They take the smallest position at the beginning, so successive losses are less than 1R. Yet an eventual gain - unless it is the first trade in a sequence - will necessarily exceed those losses. It does not seem to be a martingale strategy.
But I dont get quite the math here, maybe someone could expand on this really great theme.
paul
illiquid,
scaling in is bad.....scaling out is good........pt targets should not be adjusted ....nq rules for me are .....exit with 4 pts ....move rest of contracts to b/e.........exit next ct/cts at 8 pts....ride the rest to reversal signal...trailing with certain stuff....i don't like to trail..prefer just to ride th e run to next signal......today the nq again gave the big run....yesterday all day long.....t he problem with most daytraders is they play with the 3 5 minute charts ....big trap.........why do i need 20 bars to tell me exactly what 2 bars do with more clarity? jmho
scaling in is bad.....scaling out is good........pt targets should not be adjusted ....nq rules for me are .....exit with 4 pts ....move rest of contracts to b/e.........exit next ct/cts at 8 pts....ride the rest to reversal signal...trailing with certain stuff....i don't like to trail..prefer just to ride th e run to next signal......today the nq again gave the big run....yesterday all day long.....t he problem with most daytraders is they play with the 3 5 minute charts ....big trap.........why do i need 20 bars to tell me exactly what 2 bars do with more clarity? jmho
You obviously are missing one of the greatest element of a good trading plan. Dont you realize that most good systems have statistics on what the outcome on the next trade would be after 2 losers in a row etc. I dont know if Romik can really backtest this way and use this to his advantage. But if you think increasing size when there are clear probabilities in your favor is stupid then you are missing out on a key element that can really increase your bottom line. As to his strategy, I am not biased, one way or the other. I myself can not trade like that, but each to his own. But the logic of increasing size makes sense to me in his case. Basically, the more he is reversing the more range there is which means a larger sustained breakout will ensue. It is necessary to cover commissions from more losing trades, slippage, execution errors by increasing size. Here is an example of a peformance report from one of my systems. Your telling me you wouldnt increase size on the 3rd trade? Out of over 800 trades it has only had 3 consecutive losses one time....
romik.......seriously, you will figure this out...please try at least a 15 min chart to get the anxiety level down....preferably the 30 min....fi nothing else do the 30 min rollover ......I do not want to be a thorn in your side...i want you to make it....if you are not there, and you very well could be....but, if you are not, please take one market only....es?....use the 15 and 30? min charts....for smoothness and clarity.......turns are clearer.....supply demand lines are much clearer..for bigger moves...trade with the trends use the candles.... ..i want you to make it even if you respond back with an attack on me...i want you to make it...
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