ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Quote from romik:

You're smart guys, try to figure out the math. I am not the one advocating that this method is THE one, try and find examples where I would suffer a financial loss beyond my expectations.

You know that you are basically expecting an outsized move in the latter part of the session to bail you out, right? But what if it doesn't happen? (see attachment)

Then what? You might end up going overnight short, with size, while indices are all making new highs . . .
 

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Quote from apex82:

You obviously are missing one of the greatest element of a good trading plan. Dont you realize that most good systems have statistics on what the outcome on the next trade would be after 2 losers in a row etc. I dont know if Romik can really backtest this way and use this to his advantage. But if you think increasing size when there are clear probabilities in your favor is stupid then you are missing out on a key element that can really increase your bottom line.

That begs the question, does his system consistently show that he is choosing key reversal points, so that outsized moves will occur based on a previously failed trade? If so he doesn't need to increase size to show a profit. Or is he just flipping and reversing bigger just to get even? That is basically systemized revenge trading.

Sure, do anything small enough and you can make it look "good" eventually, but in general if you can't get your method to be profitable trading a single lot throughout, get yourself back to the drawing board. This kind of money management will just make you sloppy.
 
Quote from illiquid:

That begs the question, does his system consistently show that he is choosing key reversal points, so that outsized moves will occur based on a previously failed trade? If so he doesn't need to increase size to show a profit. Or is he just flipping and reversing bigger just to get even? That is basically systemized revenge trading.

Sure, do anything small enough and you can make it look "good" eventually, but in general if you can't get your method to be profitable trading a single lot throughout, get yourself back to the drawing board. This kind of money management will just make you sloppy.

Illiquid, choose any 2 point range in the S&P over the last decade and tell me whether price will remain locked within the boundaries of that small range, let's say 1425-1427 or 1361-1363 or 851-853, etc.
 
Quote from illiquid:

...you are basically expecting an outsized move in the latter part of the session to bail you out...

session is an inappropriate word here
 
It's not the nominal range that is important to the way you trade, it's getting enough relative range, compared to what you have lost in the time beforehand to make up for it. But again, that is all besides the point, the question you need to ask is why are you increasing risk on losers in order just to come out minimally profitable, why not go the other way and push when you are ahead -- unless your objective is to paint the prettiest journal on ET. :)

You can justify what you do in however many ways you like, it's apparent that is your determination so I'll just let it go.
 
Call the mods...illiquid is making sense....get him out of here......romik, my friend, he is correct...you are revenge trading...in a sense......you are trying to commingle b1's position long term stuff with your daytrading stuff...big mistake...the twain shall never meet.......
 
The only problem with the system is that if you are good at constructing key levels, there is usually a lot of consolidation at those levels. The slippage and small losses will add up. I suggest going over months and months of charts trading the right edge and tracking the peformance. You may find something else to add such as other cfs etc that can give different rankings and could increase the odds to 80%+ Put in the blood, sweat and tears and you will be rewarded.
 
Quote from volente_00:

THEY ARE ALL CORRELATED !


I HOPE YOU ARE RIGHT AS I STAND TO LOSE IT ALL ON YOUR 100% SYSTEM SIGNAL. I MAY HAVE TO MOVE IN WITH YOU IF WE RALLY FROM HERE!

i was lurking, but...what the hell...lmao...i just had to respond to that one.

nice one...we should call this the vol and porgie show....:D
 
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