Quote from spike500:
Correct, but most newbies think they can make it in a few months. They don't realize that once they think they master the market, the market often changes or the stystem stops working. In my first 5 years of trading i was at least a dozen times sure that i had made it, but each time other problems appeared and i was confronted with the hard reality.
It's the same phenomena as the following: 80% of the car drivers believe they are in the 10% best drivers. But at least 70% of the 80 are wrong.
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Quote from BoyBrutus:
I had taken profits and was looking to short again. I wil reconsider
I was short the ER2 look at the range differential to the ES in the mornings.
Quote from spike500:
Trend is long, buy bottoms and go long.
This should be an UP day.
Quote from LondonUSTrader:
Hi Spike,
First let me say, thanks for posting at ET. I have read many of your posts and the general principles, and knowledge you share, are an inspiration to any ES trader, I think.
It's a long hard road. I started daytrading the ES in 2003 and it is only now I believe I have something worthwhile. Many years of losses, false turns and more systems than I possibly care to remember. And each time I thought I really had something until I had completed my forward testing process (of course, I didn't start out with many processes at all.....
Over time I have learnt to embrace uncertainty, be flexible and keep it as simple as possible.
It is very difficult to develop a method that can deal with all market conditions giving a few high quality signals per day every day. And even when you have that, trying to find within that the best method to close positions in times of high and low volatility.
Cheers.

Quote from romik:
I think the above statement says it all. I have no idea, right now, what's the probability of an UP day or DOWN for today, so knowing that I haven't got a clue, I just ride part of the wave, I'll have the bones of the table any time, as long as there is some meat to chew off.
Quote from BoyBrutus:
Spike once said give me the hi, low, open and close and I will tell you what to expect tomorrow with very hi accuracy (if my recollection is correct). I have not been able to do the analysis required yet but some things I see do point to such patterns.
This would be a starting point.