ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

Status
Not open for further replies.
Quote from Buy1Sell2:

We have a higher RSI Trough on daily here with a close above the 20 MA. More often than not, this means a touch of the upper Bollinger and perhaps a push through the upper BB.
More...

Got it, thanks

Also, cash index RSI does not show a higher trough, is that irrelevant IYO?
 
Quote from romik:

Got it, thanks

Also, cash index RSI does not show a higher trough, is that irrelevant IYO?
More...

I really never look at the cash index, I just look at the ES since I'm trading that.
 
Quote from Buy1Sell2:

Very nice day today! As of the moment, there is no reason to reverse and go short so I'll be holding here. Interesting that 1269.00 was overhead resistance again today, but let's be honest, the move to 1269.00 was very large and I imagine that folks didn't want to be the only one at 1269.25. I believe that 1269.00 will be broken Tuesday or Wednesday and will then become strong support. I now believe that there will be a test of 1300 soon.
More...

Maybe not reverse but the ODDS favor a pull back after a gap up market maker ploy tomarrow morning...

a lot of shorts will take the classic short term Triple Top as a must take short play and the floor boys in the morning will put it too them in spades on the opening with a nice gap up squeeze... and then a dying quail...

once we break to new short term highs in the morn, if we do, then the late to the bull party comers will jump in thinking we have broken important support and were off to the races and that they have a no brainer bull move to pass the Intermediate high at 1293 on the ES... only to find out that have had their picture put up in wikipedia as an example of weak hands buying... and suffer a retracement back to a least half or a little less or more of this 5 wave move...

after that pullback - then comes the test... can price be driven and pushed NOT squeezed to a higher high than tomarrow's high and on better up/down volume than today... (poor) from this correction that should retrace back to about 1/2 way... or do we make new lows...

As far as taking a few contracts off here as last time...

We reached the 2.5 Std Dev Volitality band with the high at 1269 here and it was done on poor VOL Diff (upVol - dnVol)...

Since the trin closed at 53! ... the smart money will fade a gap up opening for a retracement pull back...

just some thoughts to munch biscuts by...

cj...

:)

__________________
HAVE STOP - WILL TRADE

If You Have The Vision We Have The Code
 
Daily chart still intact for long trades--although where the intraday charts are right now you would need to use larger stops than liked. Higher percentage longs could be entered after these BRD's resolve themselves.
 
Instead of the usual 'floor boys' Gap Up and Crap into a Dying Quail we got the Gap Down and <b>SQUEEZE UP</b> into short term highs followed by a DYING quail back to almost half way... 11 point loss or $550 per contract...

Yesterday we did a standard dev move of 2.5 bands up so the ODDS of us moving much higher before we return a little to the mean is about 96% against. especially with a short squeeze rally...

I like the way you guys enter on AN ODDS PLAY USING Divergences but so far your exits (regardless of the fact you are trading against a core short position) <b>are in need of a major tweak...</b>

thougts to munch corn muffins by...

cj...

:)

__________________
HAVE STOP - WILL TRADE

If You Have The Vision We Have The Code
 
We've got two significant places on the charts here to place stops and/or add longs down to. 1243.50 was the low of the last two days and is the reaction low. Then there is 1231.00 (1229.25 if you are a continuation chart player). I am using 1229.25 as a place to look for more daily chart bullish divergence or to decided to get out. I would think that stops would be below those areas unless you need them closer for account size. Right now, I have a long bias on the daily chart (not weekly) and feel comfortable adding on bullish divergences. (Did not add on yesterday's BLD but did take profit on some of the short calls which creates a bit more of a long position).
 
Quote from Buy1Sell2:

We've got two significant places on the charts here to place stops and/or add longs down to. 1243.50 was the low of the last two days and is the reaction low. Then there is 1231.00 (1229.25 if you are a continuation chart player). I am using 1229.25 as a place to look for more daily chart bullish divergence or to decided to get out. I would think that stops would be below those areas unless you need them closer for account size. Right now, I have a long bias on the daily chart (not weekly) and feel comfortable adding on bullish divergences. (Did not add on yesterday's BLD but did take profit on some of the short calls which creates a bit more of a long position).
More...

Those are <b>DAILY</b> Std Dev Volitility Bands mentioned...

and similar to the squeeze move up to 1269 LAST week also a move of 2.0 std dev with ODDS of 5% of continuing before a return to the mean and then a fall of 25 and half points and a lost of $1025 pts per contract when we fell to 1243.50 - i seems the wise course to at least scale out of 1/4 or 1/3 of one's contracts on a counter core trade at these points... again not the whole lot - a third or fourth...

anyway we have done somehwhat a return to the mean now... with the fall to 1262.50 so far

so here is the test... even if we move a little lower...

can the up next move up be driven and pushed back to break the 1273 high on volume and not on squeeze plays...

cj...
 
I would be somewhat wary of the 240 BRD that is nearing completion here. The close is higher than the open. I don't like that in general. we may need a triple BRD on the 240 before a reversal happens.
 
Quote from Buy1Sell2:

I would be somewhat wary of the 240 BRD that is nearing completion here. The close is higher than the open. I don't like that in general. we may need a triple BRD on the 240 before a reversal happens.
More...

1262.50 now becomes reaction low. The more conservative trading approach would identify that as an area to place stops under.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top