ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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Hi there,
I had a quick look at what you have suggested and without knowing where and why YOU enter into a trade your suggestion becomes 1 indicator out of many available today. I didn't spot anything of value to MY system, as it is mainly dependant on price action and for confirmations of entry I use mainly T&S and multi frame charts. I also use RSI and MACD on longer time frames to establish whether the swing is sustainable and I feel adding more of the pretty much the same (indicator wise) would create clatter on the screens.
But by no means I am knocking your suggestion though, it obviously works in your system and that's great.
Learning Curve.
It would be interesting to hear suggestions on how you establish whether the swing has legs.
Yesterday, both of my trades have been called by my primary system, where a WRB (on 15 min) was closed with more than 4 point range. It failed on the 1st trade due to me not seeing the obvious - the gap was being closed and I rushed with my entry near the close of the previous day, which happened to be near the daily Pivot as well. I should have seen that, but that's mainly due to my inexperience than inability to see the obvious I think.
I have sold 1/2 near my initial stop and waited for a bounce from a pullback, which came soon and that's where I scaled in for a quick 1.5 points, again signalled by my primary system, which is normally really good for 1-2 points play (sometimes more).
In regards to my initial entry (1/2 position remaining after the second trade) I decided to ride it and that's where I came unstuck. It did go to 1299 I believe and reversed. OK, perhaps yesterday was not really a perfect day with Easter and all.
Anyway, all suggestions experiences are welcome for discussion here with hopefully a kind permission of B1S2.
P.S. Spike, come on man, no bashers here
EDIT: I do see NOW why it failed to advance above 1299 level, it was near the 1300 resistance level and I should have sold at 1298 range.
It would be interesting to hear suggestions on how you establish whether the swing has legs.
Yesterday, both of my trades have been called by my primary system, where a WRB (on 15 min) was closed with more than 4 point range. It failed on the 1st trade due to me not seeing the obvious - the gap was being closed and I rushed with my entry near the close of the previous day, which happened to be near the daily Pivot as well. I should have seen that, but that's mainly due to my inexperience than inability to see the obvious I think.
I have sold 1/2 near my initial stop and waited for a bounce from a pullback, which came soon and that's where I scaled in for a quick 1.5 points, again signalled by my primary system, which is normally really good for 1-2 points play (sometimes more).
In regards to my initial entry (1/2 position remaining after the second trade) I decided to ride it and that's where I came unstuck. It did go to 1299 I believe and reversed. OK, perhaps yesterday was not really a perfect day with Easter and all.
Anyway, all suggestions experiences are welcome for discussion here with hopefully a kind permission of B1S2.
P.S. Spike, come on man, no bashers here
EDIT: I do see NOW why it failed to advance above 1299 level, it was near the 1300 resistance level and I should have sold at 1298 range.
I have to add my 2 cents again...First I have to mention, this ET Forumstuff is not good for my tradingresults cause I lost discipline and have tried low probability entries in a marketenvironment not fitting my style and lost money by doing. That means I still have lot of psychological issues and I better keep other ideas/influences out of my reception....and stick to my private little world.
It`s all about exits...L.Raschke says "entry is a cake", any entrypoints looking fine on charts are worthless without the fitting exitstrategy(or at all...). Porgies well meant advice using larger timeframes and f.e. small 10 points stop in the YM is complety meaningless, cause the stop and the other exits depending on the entrypoint/method/timeframe, to use 10 point stop in the YM, you need to be very, very good in entries, not waiting for complete confirmation from indicators, but do some frontrun with limitorders in priceareas, leaving you with ~30% not filled orders and starring on the the move you just missed, with to small stops you can lose a fortune too, stopped out 5 times are also 50 points.....you can lose a lot by scalping in the wrong marketenvironment, cause this means more or less unlimited # of trades for this day, unless you have a daily loss limit. Far less risk is looking for one or two good trades only, reduces the risk figthing against the wrong/choppy market whole the day. I´m doing much better with one trade/day with a reasonable stopsize....
To be constructive, there are good entries, you need no indicators at all, and i guess that are the best one`s. By checking what`s happening after a widerangebar i found something easy...As i mentioned, a break of openrange/HOD/LOD can be a directional or an antidirectional signal. After a widerangebar it is a good idea to fade a Breakout of the first hour`s range/high/low....with this simple rule regardless of other information a crude system in the YM did ~80% win with ~ 75$/avgtrade. Here an example with 2 lots exiting 1 lot ~ mid of openrange, remaining lot with trailingstop/breakevenstop/MOC.
It`s all about exits...L.Raschke says "entry is a cake", any entrypoints looking fine on charts are worthless without the fitting exitstrategy(or at all...). Porgies well meant advice using larger timeframes and f.e. small 10 points stop in the YM is complety meaningless, cause the stop and the other exits depending on the entrypoint/method/timeframe, to use 10 point stop in the YM, you need to be very, very good in entries, not waiting for complete confirmation from indicators, but do some frontrun with limitorders in priceareas, leaving you with ~30% not filled orders and starring on the the move you just missed, with to small stops you can lose a fortune too, stopped out 5 times are also 50 points.....you can lose a lot by scalping in the wrong marketenvironment, cause this means more or less unlimited # of trades for this day, unless you have a daily loss limit. Far less risk is looking for one or two good trades only, reduces the risk figthing against the wrong/choppy market whole the day. I´m doing much better with one trade/day with a reasonable stopsize....
To be constructive, there are good entries, you need no indicators at all, and i guess that are the best one`s. By checking what`s happening after a widerangebar i found something easy...As i mentioned, a break of openrange/HOD/LOD can be a directional or an antidirectional signal. After a widerangebar it is a good idea to fade a Breakout of the first hour`s range/high/low....with this simple rule regardless of other information a crude system in the YM did ~80% win with ~ 75$/avgtrade. Here an example with 2 lots exiting 1 lot ~ mid of openrange, remaining lot with trailingstop/breakevenstop/MOC.
People are able to count up to 3 have an edge....
Except in some very trendy environment, especially creepertrends, movements are more often than not done in 3 cycles. This pattern is called 3 little indians, 3 craws etc. sometimes it`s good to have a smooth indicator like stoch to better see the cycles. You have the best risk/reward if you only try to fade and that`s what you are doing by divergence etc. by waiting for 3 higher highs/lows. If you expect a direction for the day(trend), wait for 2 only to take an entry after some retracement (PowerBuy/sell..?). Of course you will miss a lot of trades, but you also miss a lot of losers and the avgtrade/profitfactor/%win is much better..Sorry to say, nearly impossible to mechanically backtest/trade....
Except in some very trendy environment, especially creepertrends, movements are more often than not done in 3 cycles. This pattern is called 3 little indians, 3 craws etc. sometimes it`s good to have a smooth indicator like stoch to better see the cycles. You have the best risk/reward if you only try to fade and that`s what you are doing by divergence etc. by waiting for 3 higher highs/lows. If you expect a direction for the day(trend), wait for 2 only to take an entry after some retracement (PowerBuy/sell..?). Of course you will miss a lot of trades, but you also miss a lot of losers and the avgtrade/profitfactor/%win is much better..Sorry to say, nearly impossible to mechanically backtest/trade....
if trying to fade a trend, wait for 3 cycles at least....
missed the pic...
Next one you need no indicators...
turtlesoup + 1...
in the chartexample in the elipsearea you see the YM making a new 20 bar high at 11296 and closed over the last 20 bar high of 11285. The next bar ONLY you enter a sell stop 1 -2 tick under the last 20 barhigh...
The last High before in (elipse) was 11285, so you enter a sellstop at 11284 for the 10 minutes after the new high/close, you enter short. The stop is placed 1-2 ticks over the new high, here at 11296 + 1 tick.
it`s a scalping method, take profits fast, of course better not using in a trendy environment....
turtlesoup + 1...
in the chartexample in the elipsearea you see the YM making a new 20 bar high at 11296 and closed over the last 20 bar high of 11285. The next bar ONLY you enter a sell stop 1 -2 tick under the last 20 barhigh...
The last High before in (elipse) was 11285, so you enter a sellstop at 11284 for the 10 minutes after the new high/close, you enter short. The stop is placed 1-2 ticks over the new high, here at 11296 + 1 tick.
it`s a scalping method, take profits fast, of course better not using in a trendy environment....
I vergot to mention in the original rules for daily the last 20 bar high/low has to be 4 days away at least, so on 10 min I would suggest more ~ 8-10 bars min.
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