chart...
ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)
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unfortunately it is a 2 cycle pullback and retraced another leg down to 11123, 15 points down of your entry, if still looking for a continuation of uptrend... The other interpretation would be a new downtrend starting and you saw the first pullback up...did you exit, may be not if looking for a 1 to 3 risk/reward...
i always miss the charts...
Mmm, seems to be a 2 cycle pullback, the second signals seems to work, so depending on your opinion you are long again or stopped out soon from the new possible shorttrend....if long again ~11138
Porgie,
90% win rate with rewards 3 times the risk??? As anyone ever heard of this kind of performance? In another post you write that you dont believe in counter trend trading and yet in this post you write buy the dips and sell the rallies. I am comfused.
Why wont you post your trades, even if for only one day?
90% win rate with rewards 3 times the risk??? As anyone ever heard of this kind of performance? In another post you write that you dont believe in counter trend trading and yet in this post you write buy the dips and sell the rallies. I am comfused.
Why wont you post your trades, even if for only one day?
Uups, not really an uptrend, again down, if long, stopped out again, if taking the 3. long, again ironically ~11138 you could have made 5 points with exiting MOC at 11143. I never could see a 10 point stop working and no 1 to 3 risk/reward...
And this chart is not too special, i remember countless days in this manner, even in an intact strong trend you can see multicycle pullbacks taking you out with small stops, a trend goes till it ends, you never know when, a 1 to 3 is illusion, you can get a 1 to 1 or a 1 to 6, you don`t know. so when and how will you take profits?, may be it`s easy in a nice straight narrow trend to see a trendturn to get out, but what in a spiky market with deep reversals? Trailingstops are not working too....Only way is multiple contracts with multiple exits, otherwise you ending with not more than 25% winners and large drawdowns but of course with a possible 1 to 4 win/loss ratio....
And yes indicators are lagging and have to, otherwise you get in to early by false signals often...
So it`s not easy to get a good fill at the REAL pullback and needs a lot of skills, a good fill is essential, cause most of the time you get not your mystical 1 to 3, but much less, if you are most of the time 5-10 points to late you are losing in the long run....
And by analysing trades, you probably ending with not more an averagetrade(if profitable..) ~ 1/2 point ES or 5-6 points YM, so what will happen by not looking on good fills, always beeing 1/2 ES to late?
And this chart is not too special, i remember countless days in this manner, even in an intact strong trend you can see multicycle pullbacks taking you out with small stops, a trend goes till it ends, you never know when, a 1 to 3 is illusion, you can get a 1 to 1 or a 1 to 6, you don`t know. so when and how will you take profits?, may be it`s easy in a nice straight narrow trend to see a trendturn to get out, but what in a spiky market with deep reversals? Trailingstops are not working too....Only way is multiple contracts with multiple exits, otherwise you ending with not more than 25% winners and large drawdowns but of course with a possible 1 to 4 win/loss ratio....
And yes indicators are lagging and have to, otherwise you get in to early by false signals often...
So it`s not easy to get a good fill at the REAL pullback and needs a lot of skills, a good fill is essential, cause most of the time you get not your mystical 1 to 3, but much less, if you are most of the time 5-10 points to late you are losing in the long run....
And by analysing trades, you probably ending with not more an averagetrade(if profitable..) ~ 1/2 point ES or 5-6 points YM, so what will happen by not looking on good fills, always beeing 1/2 ES to late?
sorry mech.............wrong on all counts..........just been too far to explain it all now............please don't be offended, but you are probably doing or will do great, but my trading is realtime and nothing like you describe.............it ain't easy that's for sure until you begin to see the simplicity of it.....then you realize it is all about yourself..........once u have a dependable system that throws out good signals.........good enough to trust ............you must find an edge...........control the fear of losing/being wrong.........then trade every signal..........
If one is a scalper he can not rely on indicators alone, tape reading has to come first than, if there is time, confirmation in indicators. On another hand, if one is a swing trader, he might not need access to T&S at all, as due to the longer time frame involved the indicator's "latency" might be sufficient enough to define strength of a signal. That's my view on this.
EDIT: Apply MACD to 1 year time frame on S&P, looks fabulous
EDIT: Apply MACD to 1 year time frame on S&P, looks fabulous
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