ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

[smilingsynic]

Quote from Pholeuon:

I made horrible mistake and went half hour prior close long 3 NQ with average a harir above 1500 for swing.
Same reasons like SS - it is very oversold on all possible time frames.
And I did not believed that on day like it was when they got 700B they will try trap us. Now I am well under water - and feeling like idiot. I simply I do not have account enough big with new IB margin rules take another 60-70 point fall and look where is S2.
I know from my experience that I will be never released from such situation.
What bothers me at most is situation in last 2-3minutes of trading - simple it was falling a bit and not rising. I stayed in trade because simply could not believe in Wall street hyenism and expected close not bellow 1500 and on Monday gap up.
But I could not believe that the 16.15 end will be on LOD - what suggest that big players are expecting gap down.

If I look on price pattern I expect gap down or slide down and up from there. On my chart we are sitting just on last defence resistance. If we will fall through - ough. But high probably will rally just question from where.

I probably need eat my loss as minimum partially because if ES will go to 1080 .... I am 100% sure that if I will do it it will be the lowest tick for weeks.

1085-1089 is a buy zone, imo.

If there is a gap down on Monday, I will be buying aggressively for the longer term (I have a small position right now), using SS0 instead of ES, which I use for intraday (when I have time) and for swing trading.

Those who use ES for longer-term holding should be VERY careful about the leverage. I would use no less than 50K for a longer term position, since markets that are oversold can easily become more oversold. Putting on a position like this in large size can end up a disaster.

 

[Pekelo]

Quote from Pholeuon:

I made horrible mistake and went half hour prior close long 3 NQ with average a harir above 1500 for swing.

Specially that it was a beautiful example of the recently discussed "dragon" formation. A giant double bottom presented itself (this is the SPX cash chart) with a height of ~17-18 points. Once it failed at the SMA line and about half of the height at 1117, it promptly fell the EXPECTED same distance ~18 points below 1100.

Going long at the double bottom was fine and even profitable, supposed you were aware of the danger of getting a dragon and falling back way below the W's bottom...

 

[Pholeuon]

This was planned like swing and minimum up to 1600-1650. I was in black /a little/, I could take it but could not stop at BE safely.
Btw, I am NEVER leaving such positions run down through my entry. This time I simple made exception because I thought that if they have got 700B gift they will not leave the indiced looking like something that is dropping from ass.
even small 10 point rally will make giant difference - everybody will be much more optimistic about following week.

Problem for me is that there was NO lift in last 2-3 minutes of trading - prior 16.15. After big down day lack of such lift after my experience speaks about gap down unless something positive will happen. But I can not imagine anything positive and unexpected may be except emergency rate cut.

 

[Pekelo]

By the way there were actually 2 dragon formations at the end of the day, here I am showing the bigger one on the NDX chart. The W's 2 bottoms are 10 points apart, but hey, nothing is perfect. The falling distance is still the correct one, the height of the W...

The height of the W is 36 points and it failed about 20 points higher (bit more than half) than the first bottom, falling 40 points. (bit more than the height)

 

[saliva]

Quote from ammo:

LC's comment about selling stocks to raise cash is making me cautious,and the support line on saliva's chart,i've been mentioning it for 2 months now,just told us where we were going to,it doesn't tell us what's next,see if it holds

Quote from Pholeuon:

If I look on price pattern I expect gap down or slide down and up from there. On my chart we are sitting just on last defence resistance. If we will fall through - ough. But high probably will rally just question from where.

I probably need eat my loss as minimum partially because if ES will go to 1080 .... I am 100% sure that if I will do it it will be the lowest tick for weeks.

I believe you misunderstood me. I never said, let alone implied, that the market would reverse after hitting the upper channel. On the contrary, I pointed out the real possibility of breaking down below the upper channel and where the likely target might be based on the evidence of weak moving averages and the double-top formation. However, keep in mind that those are MONTHLY charts and it would be foolish to base your trading decison on what you see on those charts when you plan to hold your position for only 30 minutes.

Quote from saliva:

True indeed, but not all opportunities are created equal. For instance, my crystal ball is indicating that we might be in a limbo (eg. range-bound market) after hitting 1100 and suggests that I take a hike for a week or two. But then again, what do I know.

Again, I believe the market will chop for some time, or so I'm told.

 

[saliva]

 

[limit]

limit


Registered: Jan 2002
Posts: 106


09-15-08 08:38 PM

I don't post much, but this deal is different. In 1987 a total collapse was averted by 4-5 hours, close call. This time the entire globe is involved in this economic upheaval. There's a ton of stuff going on behind the screens that isn't making the wires, if it isn't successful this will get about as ugly as it can. I'm not trying scare or sway anyone, just telling it as it exists. I don't have a position at the moment either way. One last thing, you won't believe the speed this will generate if it goes south. Good and CAREFUL trading to all. STILL IN EFFECT.

 

[ammo]

this selloff on friday was slow and deliberate which to me indicates a cohesive ness among large institutions to hold market up to sell at better prices,/not a race to get out,as has been going on in this entire downward march, (slow orderly selllofffs)recent history says ,take it higher and sell more,/so the support in spx at 1098 will hold for a day or 2/ ,and fall again as i saw no price supports holding for any significant amount of time,/if you watch the 2 day rallys where i read as more pushing up for better sell zones/,it usually sells off for the next ten days before a buyback/,check your charts and count the days,9/18 and 9/19 last 2 day up move,/ monday is day ten,look for good bounce,maybe 2 days /and selling to resume,/or 1 of these days we will hit real support/,there is a ton of cash on the sidelines,and if my business is to buy and sell your cash for a profit,i'm not making any money for you at the present time,/eventually i have to get back in.

 

[trader_arb]

Quote from ammo:

this selloff on friday was slow and deliberate which to me indicates a cohesive ness among large institutions to hold market up to sell at better prices,/not a race to get out,as has been going on in this entire downward march, (slow orderly selllofffs)recent history says ,take it higher and sell more,/so the support in spx at 1098 will hold for a day or 2/ ,and fall again as i saw no price supports holding for any significant amount of time,/if you watch the 2 day rallys where i read as more pushing up for better sell zones/,it usually sells off for the next ten days before a buyback/,check your charts and count the days,9/18 and 9/19 last 2 day up move,/ monday is day ten,look for good bounce,maybe 2 days /and selling to resume,/or 1 of these days we will hit real support/,there is a ton of cash on the sidelines,and if my business is to buy and sell your cash for a profit,i'm not making any money for you at the present time,/eventually i have to get back in.

I agree, but what makes you say the rally will only last 2 days? Bear market rallies can last for weeks/months. I wouldn't be surprised to see this back at 1215 area within the next couple of weeks.

 

[Jahajee]

Quote from trader_arb:

I agree, but what makes you say the rally will only last 2 days? Bear market rallies can last for weeks/months. I wouldn't be surprised to see this back at 1215 area within the next couple of weeks.

Markets will rally into Option expiration. Many puts - equivalent to SPX 1150 and under - will be rendered worthless. I predict SPX will be above 1150 by late next week or following week.

But, how low will it go? 1050? I think it will around 1050. I am sure the FED with PPT will step in; also look for an interest rate cut. I am not saying these are the right moves but the FED will execute these moves to save the market.

Beware, market does not go up or down in a straight line. Can't get too bearish or bullish. Market never allows bears or bulls to make money easily.