ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

[volente_00]

Quote from saliva:

Not even close. More like 500.

As far as this bear market is concerned, the curtain ain't coming down anytime soon. My otherwise unreliable crystal ball predicts that we could be in this downward spiral well into 2013. So, I'll see you back here in 2013, if either one of us can last that long.

500? The sky is falling

I know the bottom is close now.

 

[riaamaan]

The first breakout was the technology hysteria that led to new efficiencies in productivity and which became the dot com bubble.

The second bubble is artificially low interest rates set by Greenspan and the economy growing through people borrowing against their homes; the housing bubble.

They didn't want a recession after the dot com bubble and 9/11. So the Feds fixed that for 5 years. Now we pay for the phony growth of the second bubble.

My 2 cents.

 

[saliva]

Quote from ammo:

anyone know why this chart stayed in the chanell for 70 years and broke above,and held even during the dot com crisis,my guess would be lowering of interest rates but i;m only guessing,if thats the reason then it may hold here,i'm fishing for answers

It's less clear when you look at this chart in isolation, but with the combination of the above chart illustrating the downward-sloping MA, especially in light of the double-hump formation...

Well, you get the larger picture (I hope).

 

[saliva]

Quote from volente_00:

500? The sky is falling

I know the bottom is close now.

Nah, the sky ain't falling overnight and, surely, there will be bounces on the way down. Of course, it wouldn't surprise me to hear the pundits declaring a bottom whenever this happerns. But then again, why should I be surprised? This has been going on since last July when the Dow was trading at 14,000.

 

[smilingsynic]

I follow the number of stocks in the S&P 500 that trade above and below their 50 day simple moving averages.

Less than 10% of those stocks are trading above their 50 day ma (actually, only 8.4% are trading above) That is the lowest level since late January. I think all of us remember that that was a good time to buy.

A move to 1200 by options expiration is not at all out of the question. And, yes, I am buying (started late today) and have orders placed and will add some more on Monday. Longer-term buy position, holding for 1200 or 1/2 stocks trading at above 50 day ma, whatever comes first.

I post my trades and observations on another website now, since these are trades without stops. Longer-term trades need room and time, and need to put on with less leverage than intraday trading.

 

[smilingsynic]

Quote from smilingsynic:

I follow the number of stocks in the S&P 500 that trade above and below their 50 day simple moving averages.

Less than 10% of those stocks are trading above their 50 day ma (actually, only 8.4% are trading above) That is the lowest level since late January. I think all of us remember that that was a good time to buy.

A move to 1200 by options expiration is not at all out of the question. And, yes, I am buying (started late today) and have orders placed and will add some more on Monday. Longer-term buy position, holding for 1200 or 1/2 stocks trading at above 50 day ma, whatever comes first.

I post my trades and observations on another website now, since these are trades without stops. Longer-term trades need room and time, and need to put on with less leverage than intraday trading.

For those who trade the Nasdaq (NQ, QQQQ, QLD), it is even more oversold. Not since 2002 have fewer NASDAQ stocks traded above their 50 day moving average.

 

[ammo]

there are a few(i only read a few,maybe there are a lot) elliot wave,gann people that are looking at oct 10-13 for a major bottom, http://www2.barchart.com/momentum.asp ,all the stocks in every timeframe are way below 20% on the buy at 20/sell at 80 rule,for the % under /over the moving avg,i'm still a little leary of buying in here without stops,LC's comment about selling stocks to raise cash is making me cautious,and the support line on saliva's chart,i've been mentioning it for 2 months now,just told us where we were going to,it doesn't tell us what's next,see if it holds

 

[ammo]

fwiw,on the mp chart there is cleavge at 1129-33,and the upper nip is 42,if we do get a lift on sunday nite ,monday morn

 

[ammo]

onie EW site is www.ptv-investing.com, he mentions 10/11 and 10/13 in todays entry

 

[Pholeuon]

I made horrible mistake and went half hour prior close long 3 NQ with average a harir above 1500 for swing.
Same reasons like SS - it is very oversold on all possible time frames.
And I did not believed that on day like it was when they got 700B they will try trap us. Now I am well under water - and feeling like idiot. I simply I do not have account enough big with new IB margin rules take another 60-70 point fall and look where is S2.
I know from my experience that I will be never released from such situation.
What bothers me at most is situation in last 2-3minutes of trading - simple it was falling a bit and not rising. I stayed in trade because simply could not believe in Wall street hyenism and expected close not bellow 1500 and on Monday gap up.
But I could not believe that the 16.15 end will be on LOD - what suggest that big players are expecting gap down.

If I look on price pattern I expect gap down or slide down and up from there. On my chart we are sitting just on last defence resistance. If we will fall through - ough. But high probably will rally just question from where.

I probably need eat my loss as minimum partially because if ES will go to 1080 .... I am 100% sure that if I will do it it will be the lowest tick for weeks.