ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)
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finishing touch.
how many billions of Chinese Yuan did it take ...
nice way to start the Olympics...
how many billions of Chinese Yuan did it take ...
nice way to start the Olympics...
Just an observation:
1. Swing high of Fed day (6/25) was 1337.75
2. Major low was 1200.75, for a difference of 137 points. 137 divided by 3 is around 46.
3. This week's swing low was 1246.25, which is almost 1/3 the way between 1337 and 1200.
4. This week's close was 1292.25, which is almost 2/3 of the way between 1200 and 1337.
I still say 1320's by Labor Day, when summer vacation trading will end and more intensive trading will start again, but one has to wonder if 1337 is in the cards.
If there is failure anywhere from 1320 to 1340, on a LONGER term basis, then there is a good chance that 1200 is back in the cards by the end of October.
LONGER term trading often works better, at least for me, when I use options, so I am less tempted to mess with it. Bearish time spread or, maybe, a bear put backspread. Wait and see.
1. Swing high of Fed day (6/25) was 1337.75
2. Major low was 1200.75, for a difference of 137 points. 137 divided by 3 is around 46.
3. This week's swing low was 1246.25, which is almost 1/3 the way between 1337 and 1200.
4. This week's close was 1292.25, which is almost 2/3 of the way between 1200 and 1337.
I still say 1320's by Labor Day, when summer vacation trading will end and more intensive trading will start again, but one has to wonder if 1337 is in the cards.
If there is failure anywhere from 1320 to 1340, on a LONGER term basis, then there is a good chance that 1200 is back in the cards by the end of October.
LONGER term trading often works better, at least for me, when I use options, so I am less tempted to mess with it. Bearish time spread or, maybe, a bear put backspread. Wait and see.
was away all day, but for those trying to guess how strong a market is,if it's topping or bottoming,turning,on a trendday the prevailing trend will be continuios up,other will be flatline,watch daily uvol/dvol, Today it never stopped rising on the uvol,the dvol was a flatline all day,the easiest indicator of late to know if it's gonna be a oneway trend day,which we have been having several of. Pull up a chart of uvol and then hit the comparison chart setup and put in dvol,i'm not indicator savy,this is a no brainer
I hardly ever post. In fact I hardly ever come on this board. But what I've quoted from your post is really mostly what I do.
This is the only thing that has made me really money in the last few years. For example I buy/sell ES but hedge them with SPY options. SPY options are so liquid. I have a plan and when I stick by it I usally do OK. But, its based on weeks or months not minutes. I tried minutes but I have a full time job with a fair degree of responsibility. I couldn't apply the focus that minutes need.
My approach is pretty much directional, with benchmarks what to do when. It is not too complicated, simply because I don't want to mess with it and I do better when I don't and stick with the plan What I do often is if I am for example -800 or 800 deltas at the end of the trading day and that is the direction I think it will go, I'll buy or sell some YM (with stops) in off hours just to nuetralize deltas somewhat. Not going all the delta neutral though but to avoid the pain of a gap on market open but leaving the deltas positive or negative in the expectation of direction. Then in the morning, I'll take of the YM unless, the YMs gapped and trending in a profitable direction, I'll squeeze at least something out of the YMs (with stops), even though I lost for the day because the YMs are moving in the opposite direction of my net negative or positve deltas relative to the YM deltas But, the overall position has a directional bias and not trying to trade long/short YMs or ESs off of each other I am not that clever.
I do option stand alone spreads; but not a lot. I use optiions primarily to hedge on long or short positions. When I do spread am usually ratioed 1;1 (buy one/sell one) on the spreads, although I will do a 2 to 1 or some other combo as long as its net long (no excessive negative gamma risk no matter how unlikely) - like a backspread in your post or calander spreads. The spreads are stand alones (not really depending on a hedge from them), same expiration month spreads usually don't pay big until expiration week if you've won on them; but that isn't totaly true if you look in terems of net return on investment if they are moving in your direction even if you close them out early
My net debit or loss of credit when I bought the spread is usually my stop loss if I didn't trade a lot contacts or close them out at a loss if I did In other words, I don't try to adjust spreads if the probability of loss on the spread has reached my limit, they get closed out. Trying to adjust a probable loss on a losing spread only increase my risk and reduces my potential gains. I sometimes do adjust on spreads if they are moving favorably in my direction in to make them sure wins or at the very least limit my potential loss and increase potential profit. For example if a bear spread is moving in my direction, I may trade to make it a low profit but sure win butterfly spread. So, I'll adjust sometimes ones that are winning but not ones that are losing.
I said more than I thought I would. But, your quote prodded me to comment. I hardly ever come to the board. I admire you all in some of you in your very succesful intra day trading. I don't have the time and I am not sure if I even have the stomach for it.
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