ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Quote from Lawrence Chan:

I have seen a lot of time based analysis claiming that these few days should be the turning point of this down move.

Based on yesterday's fearless buying, it seems that someone did step in to start buying in a not so normal manner. :)

My experience with time based analysis, however, is that the critical time point could be either the change-in-trend point OR the acceleration point.

I need more evidence in RTH before trying to catch this falling knife. :D
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BTW I saw your reply to C thread, TY! If you glance over C's Daily chart, then you will see similar picture to Tommy's 240 RTH. C's got a bullish triple D going on (yet not completed formation) damn close to major Lo point. Maybe this is an intermediate bear trap after all.
 
Quote from JSSPMK:

BTW I saw your reply to C thread, TY! If you glance over C's Daily chart, then you will see similar picture to Tommy's 240 RTH. C's got a bullish triple D going on (yet not completed formation) damn close to major Lo point. Maybe this is an intermediate bear trap after all.
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Welcome.

For this bottom to work out (the last 2 failed), I can think of 2 scenarios -

1. It has to run up fast and breaks the steep daily down trend line in a single move. That means it is not the final bottom, just a more powerful bear market bounce that will last a few weeks.

2. The market spike down and then goes sideway for several months such that good accumulation can be done by long term guys. That is a good long term market bottom.

Personally #1 is a better scenario because we need volatility for daytrade. :)
 
Quote from Buy1Sell2:

Short 1 contract 1319.00

Initial stop 1341.25

Very short term swing--perhaps 1 day or less
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Out at 1311.00 for 8 points gain. Will look to reload the short.
 
Quote from Lawrence Chan:

Welcome.

For this bottom to work out (the last 2 failed), I can think of 2 scenarios -

1. It has to run up fast and breaks the steep daily down trend line in a single move. That means it is not the final bottom, just a more powerful bear market bounce that will last a few weeks.

2. The market spike down and then goes sideway for several months such that good accumulation can be done by long term guys. That is a good long term market bottom.

Personally #1 is a better scenario because we need volatility for daytrade. :)
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In C's 10m chart I spotted a very bearish histo pattern leading right into the close, you know the one I posted yesterday on ES's hourly (high histo peak followed by a very low one very close to centreline). Hourly doesn't support possibility of a major bounce at this time (C). There has to be some serious joint interest vested to step up and buy it right here or announcement of some sort or PPT. God damn it there's too much thought :)
 
ALERT ALERT ALERT

Triple failure swing on 2 & poss 3, histo triple lower peaks

Edit: not working so far

Edit2: possble fake creating a wedge, a b/o of the wedge will constitute failure of visual weakness
 
Quote from JSSPMK:

ALERT ALERT ALERT

Triple failure swing on 2 & poss 3, histo triple lower peaks
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Deeply oversold this morning. I would be careful in being short just now. I would rather wait for a bounce etc and renewed weakness. Yes , it lags--so what.
 
Quote from Buy1Sell2:

Deeply oversold this morning. I would be careful in being short just now. I would rather wait for a bounce etc and renewed weakness. Yes , it lags--so what.
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What we don't know with any amount of certainty is wether we continue lower here or later. A triple failure signal is one of the best especially so on lowered histo, when it doesn't work we have a small stop to keep us in check.
 
Quote from JSSPMK:

What we don't know with any amount of certainty is wether we continue lower here or later. A triple failure signal is one of the best especially so on lowered histo, when it doesn't work we have a small stop to keep us in check.
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Very good. This is what I mean by being careful with a short right now. :)

At the moment, I do not like the pattern that you describe, however it IS in the direction of the trend, so weight must be given to that. Personally, I don't look at charts so small. In fact I never open a chart smaller than 15 minute. Does that make me slow to react? Probably yes, but then I will be slower to react on the other end and that helps keep me in winners longer, so it's a good trade off in my view.
 
Quote from Buy1Sell2:

Deeply oversold this morning. I would be careful in being short just now.
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Agreed. 2nd gap rules applies (Friday was the first gap), there is a 90% chance of downgap getting filled by the end of day...
 
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