ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Quote from ww_nyc:

Hi B1S2,
II can see how you enter the divergence trades. How do you decide the exit of your trades? What do you use to gauge when to exit? And when to take loss? I know you have mentioned that you usually don't put stop loss, if the market goes against you, you add to the position. However, what if the market goes against you 50 points, what if the market drop so much and produce big trough in histogram that clearly busted the divergence (when you are long.)? Do you have any criterions that tells that the trade is wrong, you will get out?


The ideal way to exit is to do so on divergence the other way. You would then enter a new trade coming back the other way as well. However, I have settled on a minimum of 12 points per contract for the short term trades and I like to obtain a minimum of 1000 points on my entire long term position (total, not per contract of course). Also, the key to trading is not to overextend. A trader can do this simply by setting a minimum amount of capital per contract which is way above the margin amount. For example, a prudent minimum amount per contract in the ES would be no less than 32k and I actually rarely ever let myself get even that extended. That way, I don't have to worry about setting stop losses etc. Also, I do not start with the maximum position , rather I work into it, so that when the market moves against me , even in a big fashion, I can add in. If reading this journal, it can be noticed that I have struggled with which smaller time frames to use and have come back to a happy medium between my weekly position trading and what I call very short term day trading. I also attempted to use stops which is not my style at all. Stops need to be set according to portfolio size--If you were all in on the first entry, then that is where a tight stop should be used. The money is in the bigger more general swings, not in the scalping in my view. In terms of when to get out? I try not to lose more than 2% of my entire portfolio on one idea.

Thanks for the nice comments and please feel free to post any time-B1S2
 
Quote from Buy1Sell2:

I have added 2 units long here at 1264.00 . Holding overnight 4 long units.

I will maintain a catastrophic stop of 1180 for the overnight session on these 4 units. I only use stops for catastrophic event on long trades.

I am holding these 4 units today long. Hourly charts do not indicate that I should sell yet. If wrong, we'll look to add at lower levels. I would not recommend this style of trading if highly leveraged of course. :)
 
Quote from Buy1Sell2:

I am holding these 4 units today long. Hourly charts do not indicate that I should sell yet. If wrong, we'll look to add at lower levels. I would not recommend this style of trading if highly leveraged of course. :)

At the moment, it looks like we are stuck going through 1270. Hourly charts say stay long for now , so I will.
 
Technically, we just had a mild divergence on hourly charts on the histogram. The first peak was created overnight during lackluster trading. We did also have a sharp RSI peak there as well although it was not lower than the previous peak. I will stay long here and add on dips still. If I was at max level, I would take profits and perhaps short starting small.

Also, if the MACD lines were above zero I would look at getting out, but they are not.
 
I think this is way you are seeing overhead resistance today in the SPX and ES at a certain level...

120mluq.jpg
 
Quote from optioncoach:

I think this is way you are seeing overhead resistance today in the SPX and ES at a certain level...

120mluq.jpg

Thanks for posting this coach. I think this demonstrates that there is more than one way to see basically the same thing. I gave up drawing the lines long ago, because I almost always drew them incorrectly and just drew them to fit my needs and that was bad. It's working for you though it looks like!
 
Well it will never be a perfect science naturally lol, but the lines and other TA help graphically represent what is going on. If you ignore the lines we have a retracement of the huge dropoff and a breakout that is signalling a potential continuation of the downward move. As long as the FLAG formation holds, it is short for the longer-term.

Based on the chart I shorted ES at 1270 and took 1.5 points and now we are pushing just above those levels on the ES and SPX. The rally coudl fade easily and carry over into a down day tomorrow continuing the pattern. I am very interested to see how we finish today and the carryover into the AM trading tomorrow.
 
Quote from romik:

that is a nice divergence man, to be frank I liked it so much that I went long 64.50 as well near the close after your call.

Still in Romik?:)
 
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