perhaps, and rule of 10 is 1533
right now ES is trading at nearly 5 point discount to the cash close.
ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)
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perhaps, and rule of 10 is 1533
right now ES is trading at nearly 5 point discount to the cash close.
I was referring to the two previous cash sessions. Ym failed at high and es retraced 60% and failed at low of 15 min reversal bar and Thursday's open. 24-26 brings us right back into fed day range and 50% retrace, of course expect a reaction.
got my 3 pt stop out on friday... as with most bear phases they bounce a bit before getting started. Got orders to get short from 1537-1538.50 traded with a 3 pt stop still going for 100+ points. I have a small position short as of now but waiting to get the bulk of my postion on a bounce so I can keep the risk lower.
Good trading....
Good trading....
out half at 36
stop moved to be
stop moved to be
Just back from three weeks away from the markets, trying to sort things out.
I see a confluence of resistance for ESZ in the 1536.75-1538.00 zone. Specifically::
1. 50% retracement of the downmove from 1543.50 (9/21 @ 12:45 ET) to 1532.50 (9/23 @ 21:30 ET) is 1538.00.
2. 50% retracement of the downmove from 1541.50 (9/21 @ 15:15 ET) to 1532.50 (9/23 @ 21:30 ET) is 1537.00.
3. Measured AB=CD upmove from 1532.50 (9/23 @ 21:30 ET) is 1537.25.
4. Previous support (now resistance) is 1536.75 (9/21 @ 14:42 ET)
Consequently, I will be looking for a low-risk short entry in the 1536.75-1538.00 zone if selling pressure comes in as evidenced by a reversal bar. On the other hand, if ESZ penetrates the zone and moves decisively above 1538, then I would look for a re-test of the previous highs at 1541.50 and 1543.50.
I am flat ES at present. However, I purchased SPY November 150 put options at the open on Friday 9/21.
I am also looking at the possibility of purchasing call options on long T-bonds. In August, I purchased out-of-the-money December T-bond calls and sold them 30 days later for a triple. Now those same options are back down to my original buy price and I'm considering trying the same thing again. T-bonds should benefit both from an economic slowdown with a lower interest rate climate, and also from a flight to quality should the equity markets take a dive.
I see a confluence of resistance for ESZ in the 1536.75-1538.00 zone. Specifically::
1. 50% retracement of the downmove from 1543.50 (9/21 @ 12:45 ET) to 1532.50 (9/23 @ 21:30 ET) is 1538.00.
2. 50% retracement of the downmove from 1541.50 (9/21 @ 15:15 ET) to 1532.50 (9/23 @ 21:30 ET) is 1537.00.
3. Measured AB=CD upmove from 1532.50 (9/23 @ 21:30 ET) is 1537.25.
4. Previous support (now resistance) is 1536.75 (9/21 @ 14:42 ET)
Consequently, I will be looking for a low-risk short entry in the 1536.75-1538.00 zone if selling pressure comes in as evidenced by a reversal bar. On the other hand, if ESZ penetrates the zone and moves decisively above 1538, then I would look for a re-test of the previous highs at 1541.50 and 1543.50.
I am flat ES at present. However, I purchased SPY November 150 put options at the open on Friday 9/21.
I am also looking at the possibility of purchasing call options on long T-bonds. In August, I purchased out-of-the-money December T-bond calls and sold them 30 days later for a triple. Now those same options are back down to my original buy price and I'm considering trying the same thing again. T-bonds should benefit both from an economic slowdown with a lower interest rate climate, and also from a flight to quality should the equity markets take a dive.
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