ES Journal - 2023/2024

[schizo]

Not at all. I wish I had more to contribute but I'm in no way profitable. All I can do is offer my analysis of what I see posted. I don't even want to suggest that LF is in anyway trying to scam us with cherry picking. His analysis is excellent, and I'm sure he is highly profitable at this stage.

I've already explained why not posting all trades is problematic, but I of course understand that there is no obligation to do so. He has said for years how difficult trading is and discourages anyone from even getting involved. But his recent trading makes it seem like he cracked the code and found the holy grail. I just think it would be more helpful to show the good with the bad, to make it a bit more realistic, but if he only wants to focus on the wins, he has every right to do this.

My advice: lower your expectation. I see too many people here who are too emotionally attached. Don't believe everything you see or hear (regardless of what you see or hear is valid or not). You'll then come out just fine.

 

[Bad_Badness]

Not at all. I wish I had more to contribute but I'm in no way profitable. All I can do is offer my analysis of what I see posted. I don't even want to suggest that LF is in anyway trying to scam us with cherry picking. His analysis is excellent, and I'm sure he is highly profitable at this stage.

I've already explained why not posting all trades is problematic, but I of course understand that there is no obligation to do so. He has said for years how difficult trading is and discourages anyone from even getting involved. But his recent trading makes it seem like he cracked the code and found the holy grail. I just think it would be more helpful to show the good with the bad, to make it a bit more realistic, but if he only wants to focus on the wins, he has every right to do this.

Don't take it too seriously either way.

I think what you encountered is the difference in this thread and most, but not all of the threads. We are for the most part seasoned traders.
We are so beyond, and done, trying to "prove" anything. Most unseasoned people are not traders at all. Yes they "trade", but that is like saying making food is cooking. Yes they cooked food but they do not know how to cook. They have not even got into the stadium, let alone the game.

For the most part we are looking well into the hundreds-thousands of trades, moving tens of millions notional every year.
Personally when someone has a good day, we say "Great one". When they have a bad day "we say, "sorry about that". But we all know tomorrow is another day, the market is always around, and it is more a marathon than a sprint.

That being said, people would learn more in this thread than most of the other threads. But it would take work and dedication and no ego. But of course, those are the same attributes that allow one to succeed in trading.

See you all tomorrow. Algos are set and ready to test, trading live to nail that last (known) piece I need!

 

[maxinger]

Today's Asian session

ES is very choppy.
Trendy futures are BTC, Taiwan Index, and perhaps Hangseng.

Let's see if the Europeans can give us a trendy / not choppy market.

 

[schizo]

Today's Asian session

ES is very choppy.
Trendy futures are BTC, Taiwan Index, and perhaps Hangseng.

Let's see if the Europeans can give us a trendy / not choppy market.

ES will first test 5500 before deciding what to do. We're almost there.

 

[nillionaire]

Its not my intention to not let him have his day, but I think for the benefit of anyone following along, and anyone trying to improve their trading, the mark of success isn't based on just one day.

If we only take the charts that he shows and the PnL screenshots that he posts, we would assume that its possible to have a very high win rate if we just wait for the right setup and have the balls to hold. But this isn't the reality of the situation. There are several times where he posts multiple stopouts and re-entries, but we really have no idea how often they occur. In fact, if you really do a fairly thorough analysis on the way he posts, its clear that he favors posting only when things are going well. There are multiple days where there are no posts, so are we to conclude that its a losing day or simply a day off?

Take today as an example. The first hint of him being short is at 5:30ET where he posts that there is a good shot of ES hitting 5580 or lower, but no idea if he is in a trade. At 9:51, we have a clear indication that he is short because he said he will be happy with 5590. But when he posts the chart to show how far into profit he is, we see that his entry is at 5659.50, which could only have happened around 4:20ET. So there is at least an hour of it going favourably before his first post, and multiple hours before we even know he is in a trade.

The icing on the cake is that he mentioned he was short earlier in the session, but we have no idea what happened to that trade. Perhaps that was a stop out for a tiny loss because he does have a good habit of keeping losses small and trying multiple times.

So guys, my whole point is that in order to get a 100 point winner, you have to wait weeks for the market to give it to you, and you have to take multiple stabs at it, and hopefully all the failed attempts don't add up to more than the eventual big winner.

I don't doubt anything that LF posts, but what I'm harping on is that its only a small picture of what is actually being done. This isn't transparency to me. I know LF is a good guy, and after 10 years of hard work he deserves all of these huge wins, but the inability to show every loss in the same detail as the winners, and the over-exuberence on good days while being quiet on bad days, is not representative of what I think he is trying to show.

Good job driving away one of the most valuable and insightful posters on this board. You should really stop posting.

 

[Nighthawk]

View attachment 348103

Pathetic a$$holes.

Pathetic a$$holes knew about it yesterday in Wall Street circles >>>>>

Nvidia Gets DOJ Subpoena in Escalating Antitrust Probe

• 
  
  
  • Department also sent subpoenas to third parties in case
  • Nvidia has built a dominant position in AI computing

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-antitrust-investigation?srnd=homepage-europe

 

[Laissez Faire]

I honestly don't mean to make it sound like I'm attacking you.

That's what you're doing, though.

So let me ask you this. What is the fear of showing every trade you're taking, calling them out in real time? Are you scared to show the forum that you have multiple losses in a row? Are you scared that once you commit to a trade it will influence how you manage the trade? Even if you didn't call the trades in real time, you still haven't shown charts with all the trades, especially on bad days. So what is in those charts that cannot be seen? Is the fear that you would show a gambling streak? Are you scared that people would think that what you say and what you do is different?

I'm not scared of anything. My number one priority is to make money and good trades. I've done what you ask many times in the past for long periods of time.

Posting trades live is a huge distraction and once you do it your perspective easily changes from one where you want to be right and prove others you're good, as opposed to doing what you should be doing.

Even yesterday I was afraid to post my trade that was massively in the money at that point as I was afraid I would jinx it somehow.

Where did you get the idea that I'm somehow obligated to run a free service here on my own time posting my entire trading plan, methodology, entries/exits, annotated charts and so on?

I mean, it sounds pretty ridiculous, doesn't it?

Since you keep suggesting to everyone in the past few weeks to never trade but just invest the money, all the while you are killing it, makes me think that deep down, you know that this could just be a lucky streak. If it took 10 years to get here, but you can make your entire yearly salary in one day, isn't that worth all the hard work? Or maybe you also fear that today is an anomaly. Only you have all your trades stats, so only you know if you have finally made it or not. But my guess is that based on all the issues I'm bringing up, you realize that your PnL isn't as consistent as you'd like, and even though your analysis is very good, each trade is still a coin toss essentially, and likely, the multiple entries that have to be made would show this. Not that I think there is anything wrong with this. Its one thing to know with a high degree of certainty that the market will drop, but its a whole different ball game to nail the entry.

The reason I recommend people to give up and forget about trading (this is mostly geared towards newbies or people who are still struggling after a few years) is because the cost of making it is very, very high with very low probabilities of making it. Even to this day I'm still spending a ton of hours behind my screens both during the trading day and over the weekends research, testing, planning, etc.

Tom Hougaard has my respect because he isn't scared to show $30k losing days, or 5 or 6 losses in a row. It likely takes years of winning to get to this point, and I'm sure the fear for all of us is that we won't get there, and this is why we post only winners.

Tom Hougaard is a VENDOR. LOL.

Where do you see me selling anything?

 

[Laissez Faire]

Discord, you say? I asked about why this thread isn't on Discord a few days ago...

Correction: I didn't ask why, I asked if folks have considered it. The why was answered shortly thereafter.

I actually left that Discord. It turned out the same way as this thread. A lot of good people, but a few sour apples that just didn't make it worth it.

Overall I prefer the forum format as you can post whenever you feel like it and a have a moment as opposed to Discord which is an interrupted stream of comments. I'm trying to reduce my online activity and trade in isolation instead.

Maybe I'd consider starting my own channel at some point. There would be zero tolerance for negativity and trolling.

 

[schizo]

Pathetic a$$holes knew about it yesterday in Wall Street circles

Pathetic or not, the market is what it is. I'm sure there were equally pathetic assholes who took advantage of NVDA's upswing a few months ago. If you lost money yesterday, shake it off and just move on.

 

[flash crash]

Even to this day I'm still spending a ton of hours behind my screens both during the trading day and over the weekends research, testing, planning, etc.

Me too, and that is in large part what makes this all the more worthwhile. It keeps me off the streets

A lot of good people, but a few sour apples that just didn't make it worth it.

Here on this forum I just put the bad apples on ignore and I have a very low tolerance for bad appledom. The person you're responding to is on my ignore list. He really ought to start examining his own head and answer honestly to himself why he is pressing you to meet the demands he has put forth.

He thinks it is about you, but it is obviously all about him. He'd be a better person if he could come to see that that is the case.