ES Journal - 2023/2024

[christhesquid]

Its not my intention to not let him have his day, but I think for the benefit of anyone following along, and anyone trying to improve their trading, the mark of success isn't based on just one day.

If we only take the charts that he shows and the PnL screenshots that he posts, we would assume that its possible to have a very high win rate if we just wait for the right setup and have the balls to hold. But this isn't the reality of the situation. There are several times where he posts multiple stopouts and re-entries, but we really have no idea how often they occur. In fact, if you really do a fairly thorough analysis on the way he posts, its clear that he favors posting only when things are going well. There are multiple days where there are no posts, so are we to conclude that its a losing day or simply a day off?

Take today as an example. The first hint of him being short is at 5:30ET where he posts that there is a good shot of ES hitting 5580 or lower, but no idea if he is in a trade. At 9:51, we have a clear indication that he is short because he said he will be happy with 5590. But when he posts the chart to show how far into profit he is, we see that his entry is at 5659.50, which could only have happened around 4:20ET. So there is at least an hour of it going favourably before his first post, and multiple hours before we even know he is in a trade.

The icing on the cake is that he mentioned he was short earlier in the session, but we have no idea what happened to that trade. Perhaps that was a stop out for a tiny loss because he does have a good habit of keeping losses small and trying multiple times.

So guys, my whole point is that in order to get a 100 point winner, you have to wait weeks for the market to give it to you, and you have to take multiple stabs at it, and hopefully all the failed attempts don't add up to more than the eventual big winner.

I don't doubt anything that LF posts, but what I'm harping on is that its only a small picture of what is actually being done. This isn't transparency to me. I know LF is a good guy, and after 10 years of hard work he deserves all of these huge wins, but the inability to show every loss in the same detail as the winners, and the over-exuberence on good days while being quiet on bad days, is not representative of what I think he is trying to show.

I could argue your response six ways to Sunday but, honestly, it's not worth it. We should be helping each other get better/make money.

Ego, jealously, and greed won't get you far in this game (I know from experience).

 

[Laissez Faire]

The icing on the cake is that he mentioned he was short earlier in the session, but we have no idea what happened to that trade. Perhaps that was a stop out for a tiny loss because he does have a good habit of keeping losses small and trying multiple times.

It was a 20 point profit, dumbo. My win rate today was 100 %. LOL.

I don't doubt anything that LF posts, but what I'm harping on is that its only a small picture of what is actually being done. This isn't transparency to me. I know LF is a good guy, and after 10 years of hard work he deserves all of these huge wins, but the inability to show every loss in the same detail as the winners, and the over-exuberence on good days while being quiet on bad days, is not representative of what I think he is trying to show.

LOL!

Who the hell else on these boards are being fully transparent about what they do? I don't see anyone else posting all their trades or broker statements and the very least you. Funny that you're the guy contributing the least and also the one that lashes out the most criticism.

Where did you get the strange idea that I should be posting all my trades and posting all my charts and all my broker statements. Hilarious. Like seriously. Good belly laugh here. Nice to get some tension off after today.

 

[NoahA]

In fact, partially motivated by your posts a few weeks back.

You're welcome!

I've been posting hundreds of live calls and predictions in this thread over the years well in advance and even sharing proprietary research. The latest one on Sunday. Scat posts yesterday's chart with some lines drawn on it.

I agree that you posted a lot in the past, and you do post stats, but in the past few weeks, its very few live trades, and charts are only shown when you're nicely into profit, and only after the fact do you mention maybe some losses along the way. Many of your posts are also looking at both the bull and bear scenario, which is important to keep an open mind, but posting stats and levels that are being watched is nothing compared to actual trades. The charts you show never have entries, just the current position, and that's only for winners. You used to show charts with all trades marked in the past, but not recently.

I even started teaching you, but you weren't interested as you only had 30 minutes per day to trade. And now you're spending your time attacking me. Says a lot about you and your character (or lack of it) to be honest.

I honestly don't mean to make it sound like I'm attacking you. Yes, you did share some stuff, and I was very happy to learn it because its a different perspective and I absolutely see the value in having a statistical model to give confidence to take a trade or hold a trade. And yes, I also can't really take advantage of it because the most ideal entries happen when I'm not around. So in a way, I couldn't really make use of what you were showing me, and that was a bummer. Plus, I could never hold like you do, so you have my respect there. If a trader will take many shots at getting a trade like you do, then of course you have to be willing to hold in order to balance out the multiple stops once it finally gets going, so watching you do this is excellent and I'm quite jealous of you developing this ability.

And this is why I haven't been posting much here lately. I could say my current position, what I'm looking for overnight and for tomorrows RTH session and the rest of the week, but why bother...

So let me ask you this. What is the fear of showing every trade you're taking, calling them out in real time? Are you scared to show the forum that you have multiple losses in a row? Are you scared that once you commit to a trade it will influence how you manage the trade? Even if you didn't call the trades in real time, you still haven't shown charts with all the trades, especially on bad days. So what is in those charts that cannot be seen? Is the fear that you would show a gambling streak? Are you scared that people would think that what you say and what you do is different?

Since you keep suggesting to everyone in the past few weeks to never trade but just invest the money, all the while you are killing it, makes me think that deep down, you know that this could just be a lucky streak. If it took 10 years to get here, but you can make your entire yearly salary in one day, isn't that worth all the hard work? Or maybe you also fear that today is an anomaly. Only you have all your trades stats, so only you know if you have finally made it or not. But my guess is that based on all the issues I'm bringing up, you realize that your PnL isn't as consistent as you'd like, and even though your analysis is very good, each trade is still a coin toss essentially, and likely, the multiple entries that have to be made would show this. Not that I think there is anything wrong with this. Its one thing to know with a high degree of certainty that the market will drop, but its a whole different ball game to nail the entry.

Tom Hougaard has my respect because he isn't scared to show $30k losing days, or 5 or 6 losses in a row. It likely takes years of winning to get to this point, and I'm sure the fear for all of us is that we won't get there, and this is why we post only winners.

 

[NoahA]

I can see based on the replies so far from several people that I'm alone in my assessment which is fine and I rest my case. Good luck to everyone.

 

[christhesquid]

I can see based on the replies so far from several people that I'm alone in my assessment which is fine and I rest my case. Good luck to everyone.

Don't go anywhere. Stay and help us all get better. We can all help each other.

 

[flash crash]

It takes a bit of experience and guts to hold a trade for a big move.

I have the guts but not the experience. It is almost always the case that the moves I hold anticipating "the big one" are short lived and reverse.

For now, I'm sticking to taking 4 to 6 point nibbles and will focus one increasing size as I accrue profits.

When I grow up I want to be @Laissez Faire!

I also want to shout out to our friend @theapprentice. I hope you're ok and will join us again soon!

 

[christhesquid]

Nikkei taking a beating.

 

[schizo]

I can see based on the replies so far from several people that I'm alone in my assessment which is fine and I rest my case. Good luck to everyone.

I hope you don't take this the wrong way. But here's the thing about you as far as me and other veterans are concerned. You have no credibility yourself to criticize others. We've yet to see you post any trades, realtime or delayed. At least with LF, he has posted numerous charts and trades (even though they might have been cherry picked as you suggested) and genereously shared his opinions through his studies of chart statistics. This is in now way discounting your views. But before criticizing, roll up your sleeve and show some elbow grease.

 

[schizo]

So I said there would be 5 choppy days before breaking out of the chop zone (although it ended up as 6, but that was due to Labor day holiday ). With this down leg, I anticipate 3-2-3 moves. That is, 3 lower lows, followed by 2 higher highs, then another 3 lower lows. Got that?

 

[NoahA]

I hope you don't take this the wrong way.

Not at all. I wish I had more to contribute but I'm in no way profitable. All I can do is offer my analysis of what I see posted. I don't even want to suggest that LF is in anyway trying to scam us with cherry picking. His analysis is excellent, and I'm sure he is highly profitable at this stage.

I've already explained why not posting all trades is problematic, but I of course understand that there is no obligation to do so. He has said for years how difficult trading is and discourages anyone from even getting involved. But his recent trading makes it seem like he cracked the code and found the holy grail. I just think it would be more helpful to show the good with the bad, to make it a bit more realistic, but if he only wants to focus on the wins, he has every right to do this.