ES Journal - 2023/2024

[theapprentice]

Wait, the trades in this thread are just paper trades? I thought people were actually posting real trades with real world consequences. That was what makes this thread actually interesting.

You can make fun of wallstreetbets as much as you want, but least they were YOLO real money.

If you want to post analysis without actually trading that's fine. I just don't see the point in posting the paper trades though. There is a huge difference between trading with real money and paper trading.

Unless i've missed some posts, what makes you think this thread is papertrades?

Because Sammy told you?

If Sammy told you that wallstreetbets was papertrades, would you believe that too?

As far as I know, the trades people post here are from live personal accounts and live prop accounts (including my own)

But if people are posting 'paper trades' then I personally don't care. Seeing how good/accurate people are is what interests me in these types of threads which is why i love to see real time calls. It's the only thing that CAN'T be faked as far as i'm concerned (anyone can photoshop whatever they want, or post a line on a chart in hindsight telling you how obvious the short trade was, but if someone says 'long here, now at 5545' and when you see the post as it's posted, the price is indeed 5545 on your terminal, and then price goes up fast over the next 30 mins, as maybe is often the case for that posters calls, that impresses me, paper-trade or not). Much more than someone posting a statement 'apparently' showing they made 200k that morning

Just my personal take

 

[Laissez Faire]

Good data, thank you!

Not sure how valuable this specific data is, to be honest, but I always like to 'run the numbers' and see if something shows up. If the outcome seems to be 50/50, that's information, too. The most interesting recent data point was last week when a member said that the first trading day of the month is usually super bullish and I checked that and it turned out to not be the case at all...

For next week, as posted, my weekly data suggests a high probability (> 70 %) of a green week based on the numbers I inserted (subject to my own discretion), but it's also important to know that historically we've had a similar structure which actually continued lower. What happened in the past, can happen again. So it's not a bet-the-farm going long type of trade on that basis alone.

My intraday data suggests that a day like Friday sees continuation lower on Monday, so there's a bit of conflict between the weekly prediction and the intraday prediction. Maybe the way it plays out is with a dip on Monday before we start moving higher by Monday's Close. Or maybe we in fact continue selling without much of a relief.

Ultimately, the market decides and proves us right or wrong.

I vividly remember when the market broke out at the end of October last year and quite a few people (in another chat) was very vocal about how extreme that bull move was and how the market HAD to correct lower as they've never seen anything like that before. I don't have a good memory, so I ran the data and could see that we had similar up moves many times in the past. So, why not again?

Seeing how people were fighting that bull move trying to short it I "knew" it would most likely just continue higher. For reasons unknown to me. But no doubt propelled even higher by shorts blowing up going against it. Also, there's strong seasonality for a move higher by year end (not always, just mostly).

 

[Spectre2007]

Trading ES (scalping/order flow)

- larger timeframe trend filter (5min/60 min/ daily)
- tick chart trend filter (EMAs/parabolic SAR)
- prev session OHL, current session OHL, opening range
- trendlines/regressions (multi timeframe)
- volatility filter (bar rate/ tick rate) /VIX
- wave structure (dispersion around the waves)
- pattern recognition (multi timeframe)
- news feeds

there is an art to using all the above. Some key take aways. Once you know the trend or implied trend, entry should always be inline with the trend. Entries should always be on a retrace against the trend. Use stops in highly leveraged accounts or even mature accounts. If you don’t use stops exit the loss at 1% of account equity value.

 

[mervyn]

prepare yourself, ta-35 down 2.5%. war will start this week, it seems.

 

[Laissez Faire]

prepare yourself, ta-35 down 2.5%. war will start this week, it seems.

You're such a bear.

But yes. Definitely some factors which suggest not getting too bullish just yet.

There's also been a lot of talk about the unwinding of the yen carry trade and how that's causing sell pressures in foreign equities with potentially plenty more to go.

Anyone know anything on that?

 

[Spectre2007]

You're such a bear.

But yes. Definitely some factors which suggest not getting too bullish just yet.

There's also been a lot of talk about the unwinding of the yen carry trade and how that's causing sell pressures in foreign equities with potentially plenty more to go.

Anyone know anything on that?

Even with the current implied cuts by FOMC, the differential of borrowing yen and placing in USD still attractive.

 

[Spectre2007]

 

[Spectre2007]

 

[SammyJ]

Unless i've missed some posts, what makes you think this thread is papertrades?

Because Sammy told you?

If Sammy told you that wallstreetbets was papertrades, would you believe that too?

As far as I know, the trades people post here are from live personal accounts and live prop accounts (including my own)

But if people are posting 'paper trades' then I personally don't care. Seeing how good/accurate people are is what interests me in these types of threads which is why i love to see real time calls. It's the only thing that CAN'T be faked as far as i'm concerned (anyone can photoshop whatever they want, or post a line on a chart in hindsight telling you how obvious the short trade was, but if someone says 'long here, now at 5545' and when you see the post as it's posted, the price is indeed 5545 on your terminal, and then price goes up fast over the next 30 mins, as maybe is often the case for that posters calls, that impresses me, paper-trade or not). Much more than someone posting a statement 'apparently' showing they made 200k that morning

Just my personal take

What I’m saying this is the internet . This gives traders a platform to associate with other traders .Trading is a lonely business . But for anyone reading these threads thinking wow so and so is killing it . I’m quitting my day job and going to trade all day . No more traffic or dealing with bs . Don’t .I was commenting to a poster who said this is good entertainment . I’ve been a FULL TIME daytrader as long as anyone on this forum . I’ve quoted stats from an accountant who’s been doing 1000’s of day trader taxes for 25 yrs . The chances of success over time going in out in out all day long in stocks or futures over a long period of time are very very slim . If anyone is successful( min over $200k a yr) doing this my apologies to you .Apprentice I’ll disagree with something you’ve said . It makes a huge difference if its a real account or a fake account when calling out trades here’s why . You for example . I’ve seen many many times when you buy something . It goes against you and you double or triple down . Most of the time it comes back and you make a profit . For most people lets say that was real money . They would panic out at at a loss even though it came back .Human emotion comes into play .With a fake account you have no emotion attached to it so you keep buying till it turns around and of course one makes a profit .Again I’m just using you as an example and have no proof one way or another if your trades or anyone’s trades are real or not . I’m simply providing statistics how hard it is to consistently make money going in and out all day long .

 

[NoahA]

Trading ES (scalping/order flow)

Just curious to ask if there is still a video in the works like you suggested the other day?