ES Journal - 2023/2024

[schizo]

We're lonely retail trader trash and we're bored to death in isolation, so this thread is social hour and water cooler talk.

Trading is a lonely business. Interacting on here keeps us off the Streets and Society safer!

Certainly true in my case.

We're all loners and there's no shame in that. Add me to that long list as well!

Oh, I should mention that we are more lonely than other loners in that we have no one to talk about our trading. And this place provides that emotional outlet. So thanks to @Baron for the privilege.

 

[mervyn]

Except that there will be a big support down at 2022 high IMO.

View attachment 345599

but those were fake gains imho. last time i bought anything tech was in 2021

 

[Relentless]

Except that there will be a big support down at 2022 high IMO.

View attachment 345599

Markets tend to overshoot though. Especially during periods of high vol.

 

[schizo]

but those were fake gains imho. last time i bought anything tech was in 2021

Markets tend to overshoot though. Especially during periods of high vol.

Are you saying support & resistance no longer works?

 

[mervyn]

surprised all the fake jobs to take this long to show up, driving uber and lyft in a day shift is considering 2 jobs in nfp but just 1 job in household survey.

 

[SammyJ]

You mean like an anon who goes by Sammy posting a pic of his hilariously small and anemic quads while posing on the leg extension at 24 hour fitness on leg day? Like that? I guess you’re harmless.

Is that you Diestro? Hell i blocked you a yr ago . How many names you had Poopster ? Like i told you before anywhere anytime

 

[poopy]

Like i told you before anywhere anytime

Link us.

 

[Laissez Faire]

What a wild ride this week with some unusual one way moves and day types (one inside day, two outside days, etc.).

Seems like the entire world was trying to pick a bottom this week with a few exceptions. I guess that's a natural consequence of the euphoric bull market we've had lately, but something possibly changed this week and at this point it's wise to consider the fact that we may have started a correction which will continue in the coming weeks. I don't know the why, but I imagine uncertainty around the presidential election may be part of it.

We had a mild correction in the start of April down - 6.85 %. From current levels, that takes ES down to 5320. Another 220 points from here.

If we get a larger correction, say 10 %, that takes ES to 5150.

The point of this exercise isn't necessarily a prediction, but priming the mind for the possibillity that the party's over for now and gaining more confidence playing the short side. Let's see what next week brings.

View attachment 344471

Updated chart.

I posted this on July 19th. And no, I didn't predict it, so I'm not taking credit for that. Just saw it as a possibillity.

As of Friday's low, ES have now corrected 6.81 % from current highs. Approximately the same as the prior correction in April. In terms of time, the prior correction lasted for 20 trading days, while this one have only lasted 13 days so far.

So, do we continue lower or not for a full 10 % correction? Only God (and maybe the FED) knows.

Regardless, we do have 3 red weeks down in a row by now and that favors a green week next week (~ 70 % chance).

By bet is there will be an attempt to rally this back inside this week's range, but maybe we'll see some continuation lower first. Mondays following a day like Friday are not usually that bullish to be honest.

I would see failure to get back inside last week's range weak AF and maybe set up some good shorting opportunities.

If we get moving higher - maybe the 5520 area for an initial target?

Not very helpful, I know, but just mapping out how next week can shape up.

 

[flash crash]

I don't know how he can have a difficult time understanding why people might want to interact with other people who share the same interest in the same activity?

I don't think I'll ever understand why he thought it necessary to waste the time it took for him to type that post.

Then again, we live in an era where what makes us human is the ability to select all the images that contain traffic lights.

 

[mervyn]

What a wild ride this week with some unusual one way moves and day types (one inside day, two outside days, etc.).



Updated chart.

I posted this on July 19th. And no, I didn't predict it, so I'm not taking credit for that. Just saw it as a possibillity.

As of Friday's low, ES have now corrected 6.81 % from current highs. Approximately the same as the prior correction in April. In terms of time, the prior correction lasted for 20 trading days, while this one have only lasted 13 days so far.

So, do we continue lower or not for a full 10 % correction? Only God (and maybe the FED) knows.

Regardless, we do have 3 red weeks down in a row by now and that favors a green week next week (~ 70 % chance).

By bet is there will be an attempt to rally this back inside this week's range, but maybe we'll see some continuation lower first. Mondays following a day like Friday are not usually that bullish to be honest.

I would see failure to get back inside last week's range weak AF and maybe set up some good shorting opportunities.

If we get moving higher - maybe the 5520 area for an initial target?

Not very helpful, I know, but just mapping out how next week can shape up.

View attachment 345630

recession is already here or coming shortly, m7 deflating, stagflation, geo conflict, wall of worries, any bounce would be sold.