ES Journal - 2023/2024

[Picaso]

SPX 5300. Big level. Interesting if it doesn't hold. Not even down 3 % on the week and it feels like the world is ending.

Been seeing some real bear market moves this week for sure, so should be interesting to see what happens next week.

To me, personally, the market being 3% down for the week is nothing to write home about.

But when I see a sea of red in leading stocks, many down more than 20-30-40% from recent hights, I worry there may be more to it than looks like.

INTC down 30% [Edit: in a day] (45% from recent highs), new lows for the last decade, etc.

 

[schizo]

Long 5334
SL 10 pt

 

[schizo]

I'd buy the market for a rally into next week on a close above 107 on NVDA. The problem is that it may close above 110 by the time it confirms.

Why not collect the premiums until then and then buy?

 

[Darc]

I'm sensing a reversal here. Maybe it will turn out to be a dead cat bounce, but a reversal nonetheless.

Crude down 3.5%. NFP plummeted.

I'm guessing that's cemented a September 18 Rate cut.

 

[vanzandt]

Vix > 30 today? Can’t remember how that looks like

 

[vanzandt]

I'd buy the market for a rally into next week on a close above 107 on NVDA. The problem is that it may close above 110 by the time it confirms.

Yeah it's tricky right now. There's a lot of what appear to be bargains. We've been here before B.

I think for bargain hunting today, go with the value plays that have been knocked down even lower. That's my take at least.

 

[Darc]

Interest Rate traders now betting on a ,75% Rate cut in September.

Houston we may have a problem!

 

[vanzandt]

Why not collect the premiums until then and then buy?

Best time to sell options is when the vix is high, but that's also Russian roulette. Sometimes.

 

[poopy]

Why not collect the premiums until then and then buy?

I am a vol-guy. I am long upside in OTM fly-structures. Shorting body vols of 36 in NDX, slightly asym-on strikes. Max risk is 4% downside. Pinning say 18900 is a 15-bagger on risk. Mostly in SNO. Fixed-strike vols will drop 700beeps if that touches.

 

[schizo]

Best time to sell options is when the vix is high, but that's also Russian roulette. Sometimes.

Well, @poopy is the options guru. I'm sure he'll figure it out.