ES Journal - 2023/2024

[CallmeAl]

And would you believe it? I used to wear a permabear badge myself.

The problem is that a lot of traders are inflexible. Once they set their mind on one direction, they rather see their kids go hungry than to change their minds. Sad, really.

Insightful call!

 

[CallmeAl]

But there's nothing in the clause that says the U.S. must pay it's debt. It only states that it's "validity" is beyond doubt and shall not be questioned (whatever that means).

Anyway, we all know that clause is dependent on what the Congress does. If they don't raise the debt limit, as you probably already know from all the news buzz of late, then the U.S. risks defaulting on its debt. Yes, they will pass the bill, as they've always done at the last minute. But that doesn't mean one day it might all break down.

tghe Full faith and credit... if US defaults, credit rating down and we are no longer the worlds leader in finance That is the end as we know it. Compelled by law or not, we have to pay, period. My father in law's, favorite dinner topic, outside, pass the meatballs.

 

[CallmeAl]

So what happens if the US defaults on it's debt?
I've seen companies that file chapter 11 then keep on operating as if nothing has happened. The shareholders get screwed but the business carries on.

the worlds financial structure gets erased, that is what happens.

 

[CallmeAl]

Even if you believe that, even if. Who are the buyers? In typical run, China , Japan and Saudi are the top 3, adding Canada (if they are not buying US real estates). Now all the top 3 buyers are awol. Fed doesn’t have the balls or the balance sheet to buy more newly minted paper as they are in a QT.

Yellen flew to Davos to see China’s He yesterday and made no speech in the official forum, and had a discussion over 3 hours. Asian news outlets were guessing that Yellen wants China to buy new papers as the main topic.

Now back to your point, the congress will raise the debt limit to at least 3.5 trillion, then the hard part of selling the paper is price. If the rate is at 5%, debt service is unbearable.

janet Yellen is a female I admire.

 

[CallmeAl]

I member'

My mentors favorites, Thurston Howell III, he has both complete sets, had, deceased(2019), RIP poppa.

He taught himself how be profitable and left, his daughter in law, me, the keys, to SP%00 futures kingdom, along with 360K. His trading skills are novel, one of a kind. He shared his knowhow at every possible turn.

Mathematically, I've never met his match, a genious in this field.

I miss him, a great human being.

 

[CallmeAl]

Coo koos nest, love jack in this mode.

 

[CallmeAl]

4K dip buyers feeling the pain, yet...?

The current high can be a major swing high for now or we might just be back-filling a bit. That's the tricky part. I'm day trader, so I'm glad I don't have to make those kind of grand predictions, but it's still fun trying to figure it out.

The first 2 days of the week have some resemblance to the first 2 days of last week where we broke out of the prior week range only to reverse the entire range by Thursday.

Yes , day trading is not about the globel econopy but honor the last 5 minute chart

 

[mervyn]

5145 to 5140, over a spaghetti while the wife is out. additive I’d say.

 

[Overnight]

5145 to 5140, over a spaghetti while the wife is out. additive I’d say.

What? Did you at least add cheese?

 

[mervyn]

20ma likely today or tmw? closed 34 pts red