ES Journal - 2023/2024
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
- Start date
been watching this for weeks. question is what happens after the shorts get squeezed out and what it would look like
I posted my view, up into AAPL earnings and then retrace. Gap up Monday?
Damn chillibean, you ride a fast train.
The only thing that's certain is that we went up this week after first seeing a substantial drop. Next week's anyone's guess, IMO. It would not be the first rally that fails over the last 2 years.
Everything hinges on FED next week, IMO.
The first trading day of May usually trades higher with a positive net change, though. Only in 2020 did we have a biggie to the downside closing down net - 2.65 %.
Everything hinges on FED next week, IMO.
The first trading day of May usually trades higher with a positive net change, though. Only in 2020 did we have a biggie to the downside closing down net - 2.65 %.
For what its worth, this meeting is looking to me like a major inflection point with numerous markets and names poised for big moves. Certainly the most significant such moment since October.
Ostensibly everyone is bearish stocks, but momentum players are max long stocks and precious metals and short USD. Yet the money supply is still falling. Place your bets...
Still long ES, but ready to pull the plug once SPX tags 4200, depending on price action and primary indicators this week.
Entry level/average?
I see 4150 / 4130 (ES) as thick support below, but those could be as strong as butter against a hot knife if FOMC disappoints on Wednesday.
A break above last week's range and quite possibly 4200 is pretty much a given at this point, but the question is if it gets legs or if it turns into a failed breakout.
The first breakout often fails, but as long as we don't dip too much, I'd say the odds are decent we trade higher this week given last week's structure. Reversing last week's range is definitely possible, but appears less likely.
So, main modus operandi for now is to get positioned for that inevitable test and see where she goes...
