ES Journal - 2023/2024

[Laissez Faire]

PS: Been lurking a bit on Twitter lately and there's a bunch of guys following this guru who are short from around 4100 on yesterday's Open and are still holding without stops. That is, a few of them had to cover as they were close to being liquidated anyway. Allegedly, he runs a 100% (!) winning strategy and have been doing very well so far this year, but we all know how that eventually ends.

These guys are still holding short and I assume praying for a miracle. Out of curiosity I checked out the associated Discord group, but was kicked out as I warned against averaging down and the huge risk with 100 % win rate strategies.

Anyone who trades by following a guru blindly sadly deserves what they get, but I still feel sorry for all those people. Some of them lost a lot already on this trade.

 

[Zwaen]

These guys are still holding short and I assume praying for a miracle. Out of curiosity I checked out the associated Discord group, but was kicked out as I warned against averaging down and the huge risk with 100 % win rate strategies.

Anyone who trades by following a guru blindly sadly deserves what they get, but I still feel sorry for all those people. Some of them lost a lot already on this trade.

Just curiuous, how much money goes into these groups? Ea, what is a lot?
Many years ago I once joined a 'newsletter' and since then my emailadress was sold and resold apparently, but i sometimes skim such a letter to see how not to trade. It's always the same language, and it's sometimes fun to see how these guys write in such a way how they are always right in hindsight. I bet there are manuals for sale how to write in this style.

 

[Master Pu]

Entry level/average?

I see 4150 / 4130 (ES) as thick support below, but those could be as strong as butter against a hot knife if FOMC disappoints on Wednesday.

A break above last week's range and quite possibly 4200 is pretty much a given at this point, but the question is if it gets legs or if it turns into a failed breakout.

The first breakout often fails, but as long as we don't dip too much, I'd say the odds are decent we trade higher this week given last week's structure. Reversing last week's range is definitely possible, but appears less likely.

So, main modus operandi for now is to get positioned for that inevitable test and see where she goes...

3874 from Mid March.

 

[Laissez Faire]

Just curiuous, how much money goes into these groups? Ea, what is a lot?
Many years ago I once joined a 'newsletter' and since then my emailadress was sold and resold apparently, but i sometimes skim such a letter to see how not to trade. It's always the same language, and it's sometimes fun to see how these guys write in such a way how they are always right in hindsight. I bet there are manuals for sale how to write in this style.

I think a lot is relative, but there was clearly panic in that room on Friday.

On Thursday there was confidence and I was told stuff like:

"Just wait and see...Stanzie is never wrong."

"We want the trade to move against us initially so that we can build a really good position."

"Can't wait until the market drops and every doubter in this room is proven wrong." => This was supposed to happen on Friday, but the market just kept running.

I never critiqued the actual method which seemed interesting enough, but the risk management part of it and generally averaging down aiming for a 100 % win rate when you'll do much better aiming for a lower winning rate and adding as you're proven right. In my opinion, at least.

One guy had lost 25K and a few others had given back a lot of prior profits.

The guru himself is short 18 contracts with an average around 4130, so down about 54K as of Friday's Close, but allegedly trades a big account. If the market continues rallying and he still wants to defend that 100 % win rate it can turn into a really, really big loss.

I first heard about the guy on late Wednesday and my BS alarm went off when I saw him boasting of his 100% win rate, but was curious enough to dig deeper. Now that I'm blocked from the Discord I'll just have to see if he posts any updates on Twatter.

https://twitter.com/BenzStanzie

 

[Zwaen]

Thanks, weird shit in those rooms. >25k on one trade is quite some money for retail. There will likely be multiple posers in such a group, to gain false trust or let them feel less worse because 'another guy lost far more than me' etc

 

[Laissez Faire]

Thanks, weird shit in those rooms. >25k on one trade is quite some money for retail. There will likely be multiple posers in such a group, to gain false trust or let them feel less worse because 'another guy lost far more than me' etc

My impression was that most of them were fairly clueless and had zero idea what they were doing - blindly trusting that guru. Quite shocking.

I received a few DMs asking me to teach them when I said I had my own method and was only in the room to check out what was going on and that it would never occur to me to trade on some random guru's signals.

 

[Specterx]

I think a lot is relative, but there was clearly panic in that room on Friday.

On Thursday there was confidence and I was told stuff like:

"Just wait and see...Stanzie is never wrong."

"We want the trade to move against us initially so that we can build a really good position."

"Can't wait until the market drops and every doubter in this room is proven wrong." => This was supposed to happen on Friday, but the market just kept running.

I never critiqued the actual method which seemed interesting enough, but the risk management part of it and generally averaging down aiming for a 100 % win rate when you'll do much better aiming for a lower winning rate and adding as you're proven right. In my opinion, at least.

One guy had lost 25K and a few others had given back a lot of prior profits.

The guru himself is short 18 contracts with an average around 4130, so down about 54K as of Friday's Close, but allegedly trades a big account. If the market continues rallying and he still wants to defend that 100 % win rate it can turn into a really, really big loss.

I first heard about the guy on late Wednesday and my BS alarm went off when I saw him boasting of his 100% win rate, but was curious enough to dig deeper. Now that I'm blocked from the Discord I'll just have to see if he posts any updates on Twatter.

https://twitter.com/BenzStanzie

100% win rate is obviously a fantasy.

This sort of strategy is like selling OTM options. If you're super disciplined about stops and sizing, and have a directional edge, you can regularly pick up nickels and dimes but lose half or more of your annual profit in one or two giant losses. The smallest leak, and you can blow your whole account in the blink of an eye.

OTOH, playing for the big move means long periods of treading water or gradual drawdowns with occasional huge winners.

This guru may well make money over the long haul, though to do so he still needs a directional edge. Personally I don't fancy having to go through the day or make trade decisions being down 20%, 30% or more of my account, praying for the price to turn around, and moreover to experience that at least several times a year.

 

[Master Pu]

Let's head up

 

[Cessna06P]

short 86.25

 

[Laissez Faire]

Got my long entry with an average at 4186 on two contracts. Prepared to stop out for a point or two and re-enter if I'm early.

The entire world is anticipating a break above 4200 at this point. If it's successful with continuation, I think we can hit 4230 today.

Confidence level = medium.

It's not impossible that we roll over today or see some consolidation within Friday's range, but my semi-educated guess says we'll head higher today.