ES Journal - 2023/2024

spectastic said:
price/time as in market profile? are you using algo to assist you, or doing it yourself? I agree the bottoming formation was likely a bear trap the longer it took to fail to break down, but the prediction that we'd end the day above opening range intrigues me. Where did that come from?
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Not market profile, but time as in time of day.

Simply put, and without revealing any secrets: today's structure at that point in time indicated that we would take out today's HOD by the Close. I'm sure if NQ was playing ball we'd be way higher by now.

I have a custom model in C# / SQL which does all this for me. Tabulated data and various metrics. Took many years and much $$$ to build. :)

Locking in 9 points here. In this volatility it might be too tight, but no use letting it go all the way back to B/E from here.

Let's see if we can go all the way!

PS: Next hurdle is 4026.

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spectastic said:
at this point, it feels like I'm all out of excuses to not get into coding and machine learning.

is python a good place to start?
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Humbly, I think coding and machine learning are only tools. There's a reason programmers generally don't make good traders.

The riddle of the markets can't be solved by programming, but it can sure be a good tool to help you if you know how to use it. Most programmers don't.

I hired people to do all my stuff and only know some basic pseudo-code/logic and VBA.

If I knew what I know now, then, maybe it would have been a worthwhile investment to spend a few years to learn coding such that I could have done it all myself and had full control.
 
Laissez Faire said:
Humbly, I think coding and machine learning are only tools. There's a reason programmers generally don't make good traders.

The riddle of the markets can't be solved by programming, but it can sure be a good tool to help you if you know how to use it. Most programmers don't.

I hired people to do all my stuff and only know some basic pseudo-code/logic and VBA.

If I knew what I know now, then, maybe it would have been a worthwhile investment to spend a few years to learn coding such that I could have done it all myself and had full control.
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I agree, there is no substitute for screen time and experience. I'll listen to a 30 year veteran floor trader before I'll ever listen to some new guy who has 1000 hours of back testing. But if I were to do it over knowing what I know now, I'd have tried much harder to become a coder. I did java in college and imo had a pretty shitty professor with a class room full of people who already knew java, and I felt like a total dumbass, and quit. But with more maturity and seeing how learning is a life long journey, it can't hurt to have something like this in your toolbelt, as you mention.
 
Stopped out for 14.75 points (1 tick slippage) on a trailing stop at the precise moment where I was about to trail it back down to 17.50.

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One hour left. I still think we have a good chance at the new HOD by the Close, but I'm not interested in playing anymore from here as 4026 can reverse this for today. A new HOD seems more likely, though, but this is a vulnerable spot to enter in the middle of nowhere.
 
Buy1Sell2 said:
Nicely bullish close for the day and week. IHS is in final stages on daily and we are back above 200 day MA. This uptrend seems intact and breakout of megaphone pattern, not to mention a new smaller cup and handle pattern within the megaphone handle appears to be imminent. I am sticking with my 4800 cash prediction for the year. We spent more than 20 days above the 200 day MA earlier this year and history tells us that the average gain from that is around 20 percent. Not a guaranteed up but it's an average. Sometimes it's down of course.
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Another bullish close? :cool:
 
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