ES Journal - 2023/2024

Any new bad banking news aside, I really like the naz and the russell for the upcoming week. More so the naz.

If Powell goes 0 points, the naz will take off, .25 is almost sure to happen but that won't be a surprise, and you can bet he'll be asked if there could be a pause going forward and he will of course say nothing is off the table. "We remain data dependent."

So .25 is way better than "higher for longer". Tech will like that. It won't rocket, but it won't sell off.

Now the Russell is loaded with small regional bank stocks that most have never heard of ,so if the dust settles some and we don't hear of some small-town banks being in trouble, IWM (Russell etf) should see a nice bounce too. That one is a big if though... I'm not so sure the dust has settled on banking yet. We only get to know what they tell us. The fact that XLF and KRE are both down again is certainly cause for a "hmmm(?)."

3921 on spx as I type. Don't be greedy, weeks over.
Gotta dip. Safe weekend and luck of the Irish to all. ;)
 
By start of last week - obviously a lot of people were positioned on the wrong side of the market considering the extreme bearish sentiment and how the market barely dipped below the prior week's low before starting a rally.

I'm wondering if the reverse could be true for this week with people starting to get a bit too bullish.
 
es is being pulled in 2 different directions right now. rty is hurting from likely not just the bank runs but also other things that are broken under the hood from rising interest rates, and nq is being held up by a few megacaps, all of which look pretty extended to me. I also don't think we get much follow through on the long side, and that maybe the Fed start to ease into the next recession, just like they have every time shit has hit the fan.
 
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