ES Journal - 2023/2024

If only this could be quantified. It can go either way whenever and keep heading that way. What is your parameter for the start of a full breakout?
A breakout above the megaphone top line that develops support or a medium term long signal from below the megaphone top line.
 
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I don't tend to be good at prediction/maps like some people are and tend to just take what I consider to be a 'signal' as I watch the market, but my complete guess is we trade down to maybe 3930 ish and then bounce
3932 there I think. Good for a 50 point drop.
Ask me how many of them points I actually caught, though. (hint: It starts with 0! :))

Why 3930?

upload_2023-3-17_15-50-5.png



SPY chart, but same stuff.

Not gonna go long here despite being tempted
 
Level traders getting creamed trying to pick a bottom on the way down. I'm enamored by 3925 on the day.

I trade by levels myself, but on a trend day down and when someone simply wants to sell those levels have as much support and significance as butter against a hot knife. :)

3932 there I think. Good for a 50 point drop.
Ask me how many of them points I actually caught, though. (hint: It starts with 0! :))

Not gonna go long here despite being tempted

Nice! Thanks for that chart. One thing is to see those levels, though. Another is to have the foresight and skill to trade in the correct direction. So, I commend you for that call. Nice work.

Personally, I think it's too early for a long. Unless some op-ex magic comes into play.
 
Trend followers also get creamed at times. That is why I asked Buy1 at what level his outlook will change to yep, breakout is now real.

Most days ain't a trend day on ES. Not at my trading computer at the moment, but I think it's about 10 % of all down days.

As long as we hold below ~ 62 and doesn't make a higher high here I think we still have good chances at new lows here by the close, but with quad witching it's probably a tough day to predict.
 
They keep selling that 62 level, but no follow through as of yet. I still think a rug pull into the close is more likely than an up move. Anyone seeing anything else?

A strong move above 62 today seems improbable to me on a "normal" day, but maybe with quad witching it's different and more random dependent on positions on various contracts being closed out.
 
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