ES Journal - 2023/2024

[Master Pu]

Some say we are observing the start of the new mega AI trend that is likely to last decades.

Doesn't matter who exactly, folks that have a special interest in all things AI and are what you would call long-term investors. Due to a lack of hardware capabilities, even though we are seeing progress, we are likely in the infancy stages of AI. Incredibly scary potential awaits us.

 

[Laissez Faire]

multi-timeframe analysis using a mix of market profile, volume profile and basic TA to try to find some levels. And some classic chart techniques/classic TA patterns (along with some personal 'patterns' that i've spotted). And some 'feel' and judgement of market sentiment at times. Nothing that we all don't know about and use. There's many here who are a million miles ahead of me likely using much more advanced methods who would laugh at my tools, but it's all I have!

Sounds good. The tools may not be the most important, but the skill in using those tools and from what you've shown I'll say you're doing very well.

 

[Laissez Faire]

I don't tend to be good at prediction/maps like some people are and tend to just take what I consider to be a 'signal' as I watch the market, but my complete guess is we trade down to maybe 3930 ish and then bounce

Why 3930?

My educated guess would be that if we go that low - we're not going to see a reversal higher for today.

I'm thinking 3950/60 for support if we should have any chance at another go at 4K today.

I'm stalking a long down here, but may wait for the Open.

 

[newbie463]

H23 or M23 could be the difference?

 

[mervyn]

Out 3969 m23, +12

 

[Laissez Faire]

NQ really going for it here, but ES not playing with. Yet at least.

 

[Laissez Faire]

Can't rule out an Inside Day after yesterday's monster move.

My statistics does suggest this could be a short after this failure on the Open, but I don't have the confidence to short this today. Especially with NQ being so strong.

So, primarily looking for the long side here and will probably stay on the sidelines if we break lower.

SPX is touching the 200 MA here.

 

[Laissez Faire]

Maybe @chillibean will get his 3930.

 

[mervyn]

It is quad day, no volume on h

 

[Laissez Faire]

Interesting. That failure at 10:05 was a big tell. Easy to see in hindsight. At the time, my mind was reading it as a pullback.

Not sure if I'm the only one experiencing it, but I can tend to override my data from time to time.

Technically (not a prediction), I don't see why this can't slide all the way down to @chillibean's 3930 and even 3900.

With quad witching as @mervyn pointed out I'm sure that could influence things as well.