If only this could be quantified. It can go either way whenever and keep heading that way. What is your parameter for the start of a full breakout?
ES Journal - 2023/2024
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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If only this could be quantified. It can go either way whenever and keep heading that way. What is your parameter for the start of a full breakout?
My God. I usually have a good grasp of the big picture and as predicted we got the move to the HOD and a new HOD, but damn, I still get lost within these wiggles and constant back-filling on ES.
The result was a drawdown on many small stops and needing a biggie to finish the day green.
I think we hit 4K and possibly blow some stops above, but I'm not going to gamble on it when in drawdown.
The result was a drawdown on many small stops and needing a biggie to finish the day green.
I think we hit 4K and possibly blow some stops above, but I'm not going to gamble on it when in drawdown.
some who? not before some kind of 2000 like speculative bubble I presume.
I did some analysis on the thesis of seasonality, could be interesting to share. So this is only for data on spy, 1993-now. I've used weekly returns, so numbers on the axes represents weeknumbers.
So first a comparison of the distributions of weekly returns, per week.
Each line shows the distribution of the weekly returns (returns not in percentage notation, so 0.05 represents 5%)
Density of week 1 to 10:
Density of week 11-20:
Density of week 21-30:
Next just the average return per week(number):
and distribution represented in scatterplot:
And now lets trim extreme negative points (weekly r < -10%). In orange in total 5 negative returns are trimmed (from total of 1572 datapoints). This would be equivalent to buy a -10% (from atm/close) weekly put with your long position (which you should substract):
and distribution in scatter:
Week 11-20 represents the period half march-half may.
So first a comparison of the distributions of weekly returns, per week.
Each line shows the distribution of the weekly returns (returns not in percentage notation, so 0.05 represents 5%)
Density of week 1 to 10:
Density of week 11-20:
Density of week 21-30:
Next just the average return per week(number):
and distribution represented in scatterplot:
And now lets trim extreme negative points (weekly r < -10%). In orange in total 5 negative returns are trimmed (from total of 1572 datapoints). This would be equivalent to buy a -10% (from atm/close) weekly put with your long position (which you should substract):
and distribution in scatter:
Week 11-20 represents the period half march-half may.
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So. Reversal or continuation today?
My statistics are inconclusive, but there's a bullish bias. So, primarily looking to buy on the Open whether that's a gap down or a flat Open. For a gap down Open I would be targeting a gap close and possible continuation above 4K.
The key, IMO, is to look for failure around that 4K level.
The main takeway from my statistics is that a full blown reversal towards yesterday LOD and lower is definitely possible for today, so I wouldn't give a long too much room to breathe and I won't be afraid to short if price suggests so.
Not the best crystal ball, but that's all I got for today and it's an actionable game plan for myself.
My statistics are inconclusive, but there's a bullish bias. So, primarily looking to buy on the Open whether that's a gap down or a flat Open. For a gap down Open I would be targeting a gap close and possible continuation above 4K.
The key, IMO, is to look for failure around that 4K level.
The main takeway from my statistics is that a full blown reversal towards yesterday LOD and lower is definitely possible for today, so I wouldn't give a long too much room to breathe and I won't be afraid to short if price suggests so.
Not the best crystal ball, but that's all I got for today and it's an actionable game plan for myself.
I don't tend to be good at prediction/maps like some people are and tend to just take what I consider to be a 'signal' as I watch the market, but my complete guess is we trade down to maybe 3930 ish and then bounce
Nvda chart backing this
~ 3960 - 70 is about where we broke out yesterday. Maybe a good pullback low if we didn't already put it in here. NQ's been holding up fairly well so far.
Your entries generally seems very good, though. What constitutes a signal for you unless it's a secret? Classical TA/charts or something else?
Your entries generally seems very good, though. What constitutes a signal for you unless it's a secret? Classical TA/charts or something else?
multi-timeframe analysis using a mix of market profile, volume profile and basic TA to try to find some levels. And some classic chart techniques/classic TA patterns (along with some personal 'patterns' that i've spotted). And some 'feel' and judgement of market sentiment at times. Nothing that we all don't know about and use. There's many here who are a million miles ahead of me likely using much more advanced methods who would laugh at my tools, but it's all I have!