ES Journal - 2023/2024

[spectastic]

Uhm, yeah, like since last July. I guess you've been out of the picture for a while. (I think that's what @Overnight would say )

But if you notice, we're making a HIGHER LOW here on this chart as well.

View attachment 304552

I was just being facetious. yes I've known this. except if you look past the last 20 years, particularly in the 70s-early 90s, that we've seen inversions, and yet market failed to make new low relative to the inflation peak (blue line). the secular bull trend is still intact as far as I'm concerned. there's argument to be made that the economic conditions now are way better than they were in 00 or 08. could it get worse than expected? of course, I have no crystal ball. But thinking we're headed towards a cliff on the sole notion of an inverted yield curve is moronic. in trading, we deal with probabilities, nothing is certain, that's how you lose your ass. any trader worth their salt knows this.

 

[Master Pu]

I'm interested to know who are these people you follow, and what's their track record. Who's saying we need to go to 8-9%? that's not even close to the fed roadmap we have now, meanwhile inflation has been trending down like they wanted. and vix has not been a reliable indicator for true market volatility for the past year or so, though admittedly, every time it has fallen to this level, it had marked a local market top. not to say that the same will necessarily occur this time around.

If you look for it, there are smart people on both sides. So I've learned to take these internet/twitter people with a huge grain of salt.

I have followed them for years, some over 20 years now, they all make mistakes at times, just like any of us, it is the confluence of what they are seeing right now, not whats gonna happen today or tomorrow perhaps, but a somewhat bigger picture and when right, that is how bigger bucks are made skinning the cat.

 

[Laissez Faire]

4K incoming. Will it hold? Not so sure.

Dip buyers probably going to get creamed here.

 

[Laissez Faire]

As I said a few times last year (and maybe once this year) everyone appears to get the most bullish near a market high and the most bearish near a market low...

The FED took away the punch bowl, guys and gals. This is not the same market as we've had the prior 10 years.

Now, the day is still young, but I'd be mildly surprised if today close green.

 

[formikatrading]

To your point, we are at the end of January. February is not usually a real bullish month -- there will be some swings, of course. Still could be following that 2002-2003 model with a March low. Keeping an open mind.

As I said a few times last year (and maybe once this year) everyone appears to get the most bullish near a market high and the most bearish near a market low...

The FED took away the punch bowl, guys and gals. This is not the same market as we've had the prior 10 years.

Now, the day is still young, but I'd be mildly surprised if today close green.

 

[Laissez Faire]

Dip buyers probably going to get creamed here.

Yeah.

4K dip buyers coming up next.

Will they also get creamed?

 

[vanzandt]

Thoughts...

People underestimate the power of the 'tells' that can be derived from understanding the nature of human psychology as it applies to markets. I guess experience plays a role, but here's something I wanted to share with you folks that participate on B1's thread here.

Do you guys remember the Summer-Fall of 2021 when everything was sky-high and heading higher? Remember how the market looked for any excuse to drop? Even a hint of bad news caused a correction, which was of course--- bought. The phrase 'btfd'... we still use it lol, but it really did find its genesis in everyday vernacular that summer. But look what happened eventually, a huge huge drop. It was like that in 2006 too.

What I am seeing now, is the exact opposite.

The market's are looking for any excuse to go up.
It's like those government numbers yesterday, the leading economic indicators... the Street was praying for them to come in low... I had a feeling they would, but that's not why I said we'd get a spike... the real reason is because of herd mindset.

See here's the thing... when the market is desperately searching for, fishing for, any excuse to spike up... it's a sure sign we trending down and lower lows are on the way

BUT... like anything else, take it as one person's observations, I mean I could be wrong. Either way, I thought I'd share as we head into earnings. As I pointed out last night MSFT will be the next excuse to spike up. Heaven forbid they sound negative, because if they do, we'll see a 2% drop tomorrow.

This market is a traders dream though, ya gotta give it that.
~vz

 

[Master Pu]

Thoughts...

People underestimate the power of the 'tells' that can be derived from understanding the nature of human psychology as it applies to markets. I guess experience plays a role, but here's something I wanted to share with you folks that participate on B1's thread here.

Do you guys remember the Summer-Fall of 2021 when everything was sky-high and heading higher? Remember how the market looked for any excuse to drop? Even a hint of bad news caused a correction, which was of course--- bought. The phrase 'btfd'... we still use it lol, but it really did find its genesis in everyday vernacular that summer. But look what happened eventually, a huge huge drop. It was like that in 2006 too.

What I am seeing now, is the exact opposite.

The market's are looking for any excuse to go up.
It's like those government numbers yesterday, the leading economic indicators... the Street was praying for them to come in low... I had a feeling they would, but that's not why I said we'd get a spike... the real reason is because of herd mindset.

See here's the thing... when the market is desperately searching for, fishing for, any excuse to spike up... it's a sure sign we trending down and lower lows are on the way

BUT... like anything else, take it as one person's observations, I mean I could be wrong. Either way, I thought I'd share as we head into earnings. As I pointed out last night MSFT will be the next excuse to spike up. Heaven forbid they sound negative, because if they do, we'll see a 2% drop tomorrow.

This market is a traders dream though, ya gotta give it that.
~vz

Thanks for your insight V!

 

[formikatrading]

@vanzandt is definitely one of the better tape readers here so I don't dismiss what he says.

On the other hand, I continue to track a number of data points -- my expectation for this week continues to be + for the week so I'm not expecting a major sell-off yet. I have some interesting ST cycles coming in for Thursday so will be flexible, though.

Thoughts...

People underestimate the power of the 'tells' that can be derived from understanding the nature of human psychology as it applies to markets. I guess experience plays a role, but here's something I wanted to share with you folks that participate on B1's thread here.

Do you guys remember the Summer-Fall of 2021 when everything was sky-high and heading higher? Remember how the market looked for any excuse to drop? Even a hint of bad news caused a correction, which was of course--- bought. The phrase 'btfd'... we still use it lol, but it really did find its genesis in everyday vernacular that summer. But look what happened eventually, a huge huge drop. It was like that in 2006 too.

What I am seeing now, is the exact opposite.

The market's are looking for any excuse to go up.
It's like those government numbers yesterday, the leading economic indicators... the Street was praying for them to come in low... I had a feeling they would, but that's not why I said we'd get a spike... the real reason is because of herd mindset.

See here's the thing... when the market is desperately searching for, fishing for, any excuse to spike up... it's a sure sign we trending down and lower lows are on the way

BUT... like anything else, take it as one person's observations, I mean I could be wrong. Either way, I thought I'd share as we head into earnings. As I pointed out last night MSFT will be the next excuse to spike up. Heaven forbid they sound negative, because if they do, we'll see a 2% drop tomorrow.

This market is a traders dream though, ya gotta give it that.
~vz

 

[newbie463]

.....