it's as if you're saying the market can't do that, or that you'd be surprised if it did.
ES Journal - 2023/2024
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
- Start date
it's as if you're saying the market can't do that, or that you'd be surprised if it did.
I'd be surprised if it did. The fundamentals here are just as important as they have ever been. We have muted earnings reports coming from everyone the next few weeks, we have the Fed spewing in a week, and we have inflation numbers coming in. In this environment, the pattern has been the same for 14 months. HL/HH followed by LL/LH.
Only the Fed can stop this bear market. It is all up to Powell and his FOMC cronies.
Considering the market is forward looking, it would be anticipating the fed pivot before it happens. The 10 yr yield shows where bond traders stand relative to the fed. And the data we've been getting has painted the picture that we're seeing lower inflation with good job numbers, suggesting soft landing is possible. That's what's happening here and now. And fwiw, the first inflation peak in '42 and '74 marked the market bottom. I'm not dismissing the possibility that we see another capitulation or a lost decade. I'm not nearly smart/experienced enough to make such a call, and I'm too skeptical of internet gurus to be swayed very easily one way or another. As traders, our job is to read price not project our opinions. Just my unsolicited 2c.
Another run to 410 spy would just be another 2 sigma weekly move, which statistically is bound to happen, especially with the market being at such a key inflection point. Crazier things have happened.
Fed pivot? Ahahha, that is about two years off. As for the bond yields? Unless that curve reverts back to normal, the country will be in a recession, BECAUSE THE YIELDS SAY WE MUST BE, ECO-DATA BE DAMNED".
It's all about the Fed.
Yeah, yeah, the usual broken clock chatter. Is that why you kept your long position until it expired worthless?
Yeah, yeah, the usual broken clock chatter. Is that why you kept your long position until it expired worthless?
Yep. Because I did not understand how nasty the Fed could get. You keep rubbing salt into my wounds...Why? Sheesh.
How about this, Schizo. How does this feel...I have lost more money in trading than you have ever made in it. Does THAT make you feel more like a man?
Fuck, dude, just STFU!
According to the dot plot, it's about 1 year away. so what reasons do you have for knowing better than the fed?
The Fed doesn't know better than the Fed. Remember a year ago when they said Inflation was transitory, and people like you and me kept going "no, it is not" because we kept seeing prices go up?
When you saw your consumable prices going up month over month, did YOU know better than the Fed, or did the Fed know better than the Fed?
Do me a favor and do not answer that, because you have no answer. All you want to do is argue like an armchair quarterback, because you do not buy food with money, and you do not trade. I do not like conversing with fake traders who live off the dole.
The fact that you do not get my sarcasm about Bond yields indicating that we MUST be heading to a recession and has gone over your head? Priceless.
Goodbye stout yeoman. Try Usenet, I think they take little mental midgets like you.
If you weren't repeating the same crap every time, maybe I would. Anyway just look at the damn chart. The market has been rallying steadily higher since October 13th. How many times did you miss the rally thinking the Fed will "eventually" pull the rug?