and everyone else on ET for that matter.
ES Journal - 2023/2024
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
- Start date
short 4020
I don't know where we will close 2023 BUT keep this in mind (According to Stock Trader's Almanac):
1) Pre-Presidential Election Year (i.e., 2023): Only 1 loser in 84 years.
2) The last 47 up First Five Days of the Year (which occurred on January 9 this year) were followed by gains for the year 83% of the time. So this in now in play.
3) Average gain in the DOW from mid-term election year low (i.e., 2022) to subsequent high the next year (i.e., 2023) is 46.8% on average (since 1914).
It's all probabilities but those are a few that are in play now.
1) Pre-Presidential Election Year (i.e., 2023): Only 1 loser in 84 years.
2) The last 47 up First Five Days of the Year (which occurred on January 9 this year) were followed by gains for the year 83% of the time. So this in now in play.
3) Average gain in the DOW from mid-term election year low (i.e., 2022) to subsequent high the next year (i.e., 2023) is 46.8% on average (since 1914).
It's all probabilities but those are a few that are in play now.
"The First 5 Trading Days of the Year
If the Dow is higher for the first 5 trading days of the year then there is an 82% probability that the Dow will end the year higher with an average gain of 13.5%.
If the Dow is lower then there is an 56% probability that the Dow will end Up on the year with an average gain of 1%.
The Dow ended 2022 at 33,147 and closed Monday 9th January at 33,517, therefore the anticipated 2023 bull market has another check mark against it.
What about the S&P ? 30th Dec 2022 - 3839, Monday 9th 3892 - check." - (N.W. 2023)
If the Dow is higher for the first 5 trading days of the year then there is an 82% probability that the Dow will end the year higher with an average gain of 13.5%.
If the Dow is lower then there is an 56% probability that the Dow will end Up on the year with an average gain of 1%.
The Dow ended 2022 at 33,147 and closed Monday 9th January at 33,517, therefore the anticipated 2023 bull market has another check mark against it.
What about the S&P ? 30th Dec 2022 - 3839, Monday 9th 3892 - check." - (N.W. 2023)
Option expiration this Friday. SPX unnaturally perched at 3999 as there are a lot of calls and puts that expire on 20th Jan for 4000 strike, so those who SOLD those puts and calls are trying to engineer S&P to close Friday 20th as close to 4000 as possible i.e. worth approx $300 mln per S&P point deviation from 4000.
If something has been so "82%" of the time previously, does that translate into a "probability" for the future?
