Making a prediction for year end is brave, IMO. From my naive point of view the FED no longer juicing the markets is kind of a big deal.
ES Journal - 2023/2024
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
- Start date
Have they milked the stock market before 2008? It was going up all that time.
Are they trying to make an accurate claim to boost their ego? Or are they trying to encourage sales to boost liquidity so they can buy more?
If it was me, I would be trying to encourage prices to go lower, in a way that feels logical (based on the charts) so I can buy in at a cheaper price (while I shorted the whole time) and then make more money faster. My view is that the market is more likely to return to the upper limits faster if its familiar territory.
I'm no expert on that, but I do believe central banks started meddling in the markets way before that, although QE and the extent of it post-financial-crisis have been unprecedented in modern history as far as I know.
Leading up to 2008 was a recovery after the tech bubble burst and the markets tanked, so not sure if that's a valid comparison in terms of where we are now after this huge decade long bull market.
It wasn't a counter-call either on my end. I'm just saying I see a lot of things which warrants some caution against being excessively bullish moving forward. At the end of the day I have no idea how this year will play out.
As for the statistics cited they are only probabilities and not certainties. Maybe this year can be the exception...?
out +15
Is a trend intact even when there is a pullback? You Betcha
I don't know the numbers, but many miss the beginnings of a bull market and even by the time it goes into full swing, many would doubt the strength of the trend as it is against what's been instilled by MSM. Not saying I know better or you don't know how to tell a trend
short 4013.5