ES Journal - 2023/2024

schizo said:
Well, yes, that's kinda no brainer. But here's what I think most people don't understand about trendlines. While you need to connect two dots to draw a line, you need THREE TOUCHES (or more) for it to be valid.
More...

I wouldn't say you need three touches as I don't think there are any rules for this except the ones we create or discover ourselves through testing.

I adjusted it on my chart to have 3 + touches. It doesn't make a big difference to me.

upload_2023-1-28_23-28-22.png





schizo said:
A two touch trendline is not very reliable. Otherwise, it becomes too subjective and willy nilly.
More...

You have data on that or is it just an assumption?

Regardless, I agree. I don't think trend lines necessarily are reliable as they frequently overshoot/undershoot. Like I said - it's more of a rough tool in my toolbox. Maybe others use them more reliably.
 
Hmmmm.
VIX sure seems awful low considering all the things that are coming up this week.

There are gonna be dozens of key earnings reports from various sectors that will provide a real look at what's going on economically... and of course we have Powell.

hmmmmm.

no opinion yet.
It's gonna be a fun week though, to say the least.
 
Laissez Faire said:
I agree. I don't think trend lines necessarily are reliable as they frequently overshoot/undershoot.
More...


I agree, generally.

However, some instruments are very exact. Mostly single component commodities, ie, gold, grains, bonds, etc etc. It makes one wonder what is cause for accuracy difference? Index futures products are comprised of many components; not apples to apples with single component commodity futures.
 
I don't think we'll come out of the gate and go up much tonight, if any.
There'll be a lot of stop-hunting chop though for anyone opening a short position on the way down.

I'd short at the open, hopefully catch an upspike, but if not take what you can get and set a stop around this level of 4084. Then just let it ride. If it starts up and stays up, I wouldn't short until it crosses this level on the way down. Just in case.

Not advice, just an opinion on how I think it'll play out tonight. I feel pretty sure though at some point, before Europe, there will be a big drop in a very short period of time, so if you're gonna play short, obviously that's what you'll want to catch.
I'll update later if the open dictates different.
 
vanzandt said:
I don't think we'll come out of the gate and go up much tonight, if any.
There'll be a lot of stop-hunting chop though for anyone opening a short position on the way down.

I'd short at the open, hopefully catch an upspike, but if not take what you can get and set a stop around this level of 4084. Then just let it ride. If it starts up and stays up, I wouldn't short until it crosses this level on the way down. Just in case.

Not advice, just an opinion on how I think it'll play out tonight. I feel pretty sure though at some point, before Europe, there will be a big drop in a very short period of time, so if you're gonna play short, obviously that's what you'll want to catch.
I'll update later if the open dictates different.
More...



4093.25 looks like a decent conservative limit order short with a very tight stop above that, or maybe 4097.75, if one wants to go to bed.
That, or roll the dice and jump in now.
It will spike up before it drops. If not, watch out below.
4979.50 as I typed that.


Every day the bucket goes to the well
But one day
the bottom will drop out
Yes,one day....
...the bottom will drop out.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top