on the daily, they look more or less the same to me.
ES Journal - 2023/2024
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
- Start date
Well you should look at YM. My gawd, what an atrocity.
Yes we really have come to this. My country has died.
Hmm, I don't think we're on the same page. Maybe it's how you drew your trendline, I dunno.
Consider the following charts. The first two are SPX (weekly and daily) with the same trendline drawn in both charts. Compare them to the 3rd chart, which is ES.
- SPX (cash index) crossed the trendline on MONDAY and managed to end the week above the trendline.
- ES (futures) crossed the trendline on FRIDAY (today), but crossed back down to end the week below the trendline. That's a big difference!
SPX DAILY
ES DAILY
Nice! Yeah that makes sense.
In theory if the back-testing is accurate then there should be no need to test further anyway right? I spent years working on algos, but for me it didnt matter how much testing I did they never seemed to work as I expected. I might give it another go in a few years time.
end the week above the trendline, but below the previous penetration high. Intraday action also failed to meet or exceed the previous penetration high.
Just saying. Probably nothing.
IMO, the market is setup to either BLAME for failure -OR- or GIVE CREDIT for continuation to ____________.
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I suppose that's one reason trend lines are less reliable. Different people draw them differently. Your futures chart has that extra spike because of that cpi report that promptly got sold into during cash session iirc. On my futures chart, I chose to draw through that wick and focus more on the candle bodies. Sometimes the bodies violate the trend line but then cross back over. I treat them the same way as I do wicks. Just my preferenceHmm, I don't think we're on the same page. Maybe it's how you drew your trendline, I dunno.
Consider the following charts. The first two are SPX (weekly and daily) with the same trendline drawn in both charts. Compare them to the 3rd chart, which is ES.
SPX WEEKLY
- SPX (cash index) crossed the trendline on MONDAY and managed to end the week above the trendline.
- ES (futures) crossed the trendline on FRIDAY (today), but crossed back down to end the week below the trendline. That's a big difference!
SPX DAILY
View attachment 304906
ES DAILY
Right! Trying to get Back Testing and Live to "match" is a mistake, "fool's errand", imho. Likewise for forward testing and Live. It is not the goal. Instead, the goal is to get a workable system you can take to the next steps.
I.e. I realized like any production software, you have to "release it" and make it work in real world conditions. There is no other test. At least when something goes wrong, I have enough information to debug* quickly.
There are still 4-5 more things that I would have liked to do, but could not get them to work in back testing because it was not live. However, I am putting in all the conditions, up to, the order phase, to test them under Live conditions. Essentially creating-generating phantom orders under live conditions. IMHO that is how one can develop: Back Test, Sim, Live with Phantom orders, then just standalone Live. Each step has its own test suite and goals.
I might pause at some point and put them in and go sim (skip Back Test), but until the end of February, I will be live working out the system.
Cheers
*Testing is for finding the bugs that are unknown, Debugging is for when you know you have a problem, from testing, and need to track it down.
Anyways Back to ES Trading. This year should be pretty good action, if January is any indicator.
B1!
Where's my check?
j/k B1...
....I only threw this together to mess w/Stoney.
(It was pretty much on key though.
)