ES Journal - 2023/2024

wow. Decent drop off. That's why posts like those from the other day where people came in at EOD saying 'it was clearly going up! Look at the trend. Why were people going short?!' are a bit silly and only possible in hindsight

Where we going now, schizo??!
 
We're now in a potential sell zone from my point of view, so this is why I'm cautious towards the long side in this area as there's a lot of stuff going on up here. The push towards 4000 - 4030 was the easy part to figure out. The next part will be more tricky.

Today should close green, but I'm not so sure about tomorrow. If we reverse from here today we effectively have a failed breakout here.

Big picture, we dropped around 40 points after a > 150 point run-up, so nothing dramatic yet, IMO.

Look at all those "strong" swing highs on the daily chart.

upload_2023-1-23_21-10-13.png
 
I like to take into consideration the narrative to go along with the price action. the big red candle from last week was likely from poor economic data and recession fears, although the actual sell off came 2 hours after the numbers came out premarket. /es bounced perfectly off the 20 day moving average, and is now retesting the major down trendline that everyone is looking at. there's been no follow through for the bears. tells me that it was a pull back. I think we're certainly in an area of battle, and I think break of this trend could cause a pretty violent short squeeze.
 
chillibean said:
wow. Decent drop off. That's why posts like those from the other day where people came in at EOD saying 'it was clearly going up! Look at the trend. Why were people going short?!' are a bit silly and only possible in hindsight

Where we going now, schizo??!
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It depends on what chart you monitor. 5 minute chart looks bearish. But the daily looks bullish.

It's no secret that my outlook is bullish in the long run. But as you can see from the recent trade that I posted, I still lose money. Getting your calls correct is one thing, actually making money trading those calls is another. They're not the same. :) That said, good luck going forward.
 
When I reviewed daily chart just before the close on Fri, it appeared to me to be an excellent buy signal. I can't see an obvious reason that I would get short but I have been wrong numerous times.
 
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