ES Journal - 2023/2024

tiddlywinks said:
As @Georpe pointed out, it is a NPOC area.

Additionally, above 4090 places the action in the framing of the Dec22 highs around 4140.

Just a reminder if we get there... Intraday pricing and session closings are not necessarily the same things.
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I guess I was right after all. Whew, I was afraid I got it all wrong. :D
 
Just stopped out while taking a leak, so done for the day and not chasing this. My predictive model gives equal weighting to the HOD being in and the market continuing higher.

My intuition says we're good for another 15-20 points if we breakout above the HOD, but that's all uncertain right now... :)

upload_2023-1-23_19-19-38.png
 
My guess is there is a lot of pain from the shorts as well as FOMO right now.

schizo said:
Well, we've had 3 days of correction. Now we're only into day 2 of this rally. You usually get anywhere between 3-5 days. So we're just starting. As I previously stated, I'm pretty sure 4100 will get hit. If we can sail above 4100, then 4400 is a given IMO.
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formikatrading said:
My guess is there is a lot of pain from the shorts as well as FOMO right now.
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That's true but I would like to also add that most of them are considered "dumb money" and they only add fuel to the ongoing fire. On the other hand, the smart money will be the ones to determine where this rally will end.
 
I get it. If you can read other traders in this game, and determine whether they are dumb money or smart money, it gives you an additional edge.

schizo said:
That's true but I would like to also add that most of them are considered "dumb money" and they only add fuel to the ongoing fire. On the other hand, the smart money will be the ones to determine where this rally will end.
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I use a "swing cycle" indicator with 3 cycles on the daily chart -- what's interesting is that NONE of the cycles are overbought here -- which means the melt-up scenario is still in play for me as path of least resistance.

My weekly charts are bullish for this week which suggest a high probability that we finish up on the week so I'm not expecting a major top yet.

upload_2023-1-23_13-50-50.png
 
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