ES Journal - 2021/2022

Don't be a Rickshaw man, man. Set your stop at 3900. That will lock in 140ish points for you. The fuck man! You guys who live in this serious money...You don't take it seriously. It's like a game for you.


It is a joke to him whether he realizes it, admits it or not. I don't even mean that in a bad way though, it's actually a good thing. Obviously he has a rather large account size. The weekly chart regained recently, that is bullish. If the market was going to go up to at least clear out short stops it was going to be now. The only other likely option(not saying only just likely) would be for the weekly regain to fail and than markets drop another 10-15% from there, with maybe even a limit down day.

That's literally his trade, not even joking at all. It really is that simple and straight forward. We regained lows, which causing at least short covering. If it can't even manage that than market is completely f'ed.

This is why others would fail though. #1 They probably don't have the cash to be able to effectively hold the trade without panicking #2 They would cut the trade pre-maturely "locking in profits" not understand that he's going for a bigger move, because he had to take risk to begin with. If he just cuts his trades off at the knees every time, than when he has a loser his Risk/Reward is going to be thrown off.

To him he is using his strategy, experience and probability. That's why he is giving it a wider stop, he's not looking to gamble or panic move his stop up. Letting his trade play out and if it doesn't work, that's fine on to the next one. That's the difference between profitable traders and ones that wait for the market to have a huge rally, than get long and get sold into. Because they think the money is made when they sell the position, but it isn't the real money is made when you buy the position.
 
I'd take some profits off the table.

I initially went long at 3775 in the end of September,, had a massive drawdown to 3502, that is $13k in the red. Finally bounced back then the Meta and Amazon hit me in the face and stopped out with meager $200 yesterday. If not for today's outsize move, I couldn't make it out so early.

Plan to go long next dip.
I like to keep full position on to reap full reward.
 
I like to keep full position on to reap full reward.

True for position trades. I guess it is up to yourself to manage the expectation. I will be buy the next dip in Mar 2023 contracts for the holiday rally. Until then.
 
Friday hit the 50 % retracement level of this major leg down pretty much to the tick (I hope @SunTrader doesn't arrest me now and say it's three ticks off according to his charts).

I've no idea if that holds any significance. I use the 50 % level a lot intraday, but do not have so much experience using it on bigger moves or on the daily chart. Just worth noting.

There's a small bias to the upside for the last trading day in October, but I wouldn't place a bet on that alone. Should be an interesting week for sure with a lot of economic ### and decisions coming up.

upload_2022-10-30_22-5-34.png
 
When the prior day was positive - the odds of the last trading day of October being positive is 67 % over the last 17 years.

Those who were negative had a few biggies to the downside. Like the 30th of October 2009. Also preceded by a biggie to the upside like last Friday.
 
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