ES Journal - 2021/2022

[Master Pu]

Not sure why you seem to be fighting the concept as it is painfully clear to anyone with a lot of experience - or why you have probability in quotations.

As far as your question - there are a lot more variables / filters to apply then just "hey - what are the odds this keeps going?" (like your consideration for indexes already having moved 1.5 - 2%) I'll readily admit I'm no expert in stats / probabilities. I just know from time put in and other traders far more successful than myself that that is clearly the case on a day like today. Just look at the PA / chart. LF would be a better ask on the math as he is always crunching / dropping figures in the ES thread.

You had commented on a potential short being a good R:R trade at 1:05 EST or about 3893 ES. We've yet to drop below that level for what seem like obvious reasons to me (not to say it wasn't or still isn't possible). What is your risk on the trade - or is it already a bust?

I wasn’t the one who brought probabilities, I knew that I set a trap for you by asking this question, cause it’s a can of worms to try to answer it. I usually go for juicy returns compared to risk, so I don’t care whether it’s a trend day or range day, I buy and sell levels that I perceive to be extreme for the day, sometimes it works and other times it doesn’t. I’m pretty certain this is the way how it goes for most here, so I don’t research probabilities, I sell resistance and buy support at levels that appear to be extreme to me. I think @schizo would get what I am saying.

 

[Relentless]

I wasn’t the one who brought probabilities, I knew that I set a trap for you by asking this question, cause it’s a can of worms to try to answer it. I usually go for juicy returns compared to risk, so I don’t care whether it’s a trend day or range day, I buy and sell levels that I perceive to be extreme for the day, sometimes it works and other times it doesn’t. I’m pretty certain this is the way how it goes for most here, so I don’t research probabilities, I sell resistance and buy support at levels that appear to be extreme to me. I think @schizo would get what I am saying.

I mean - its not really a trap. You track data and calculate math (or research / get it from those who do). Pretty cut and dry. I dont do it outright because i dont need to for the system i use where this has been done already essentially.

In any case many ways to make money in markets. If what you are doing keeps you on a consistent curve of profitability then that is all that matters.

I just prefer to follow the bouncing ball as @speedo would say. No desire to fight gravity.

 

[formikatrading]

Ken Fisher said it best - what can I fathom that others find unfathomable?

I don't know what is not known. Who does?

 

[mervyn]

This rally is the elixir of hope that the PCE number, being inline with expectations, means the Fed will show some mercy next week in their number and their guidance. I ain't holding my breath.

Next week 75 bps and 50 bps in December are pretty much certain, perhaps JP can't peddle soft a little not to ruin masters' moods.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

I went long at the closing today, for a trade that I anticipate will carry us to the 4000 area. I don't follow news and made this decision on technicals, but I imagine that it is possible that the market is starting to realize that Democrats will lose power in both houses in just 2 and a half weeks. The technicals reflect that something is happening that should carry us higher with the weekly now showing upward bias along with the daily. Monthly continues it's negative bent and I look for this lift to eventually be beat down and I will look to short again in the future. I'm long from 3763.00. Mental stop for reevaluation at 3635.

I am moving the mental stop for reevaluation up to 3742.00. Closing price today was 3911.25.

 

[Overnight]

I am moving the mental stop for reevaluation up to 3742.00. Closing price today was 3911.25.

Don't be a Rickshaw man, man. Set your stop at 3900. That will lock in 140ish points for you. The fuck man! You guys who live in this serious money...You don't take it seriously. It's like a game for you.

 

[mervyn]

I am moving the mental stop for reevaluation up to 3742.00. Closing price today was 3911.25.

I'd take some profits off the table.

I initially went long at 3775 in the end of September,, had a massive drawdown to 3502, that is $13k in the red. Finally bounced back then the Meta and Amazon hit me in the face and stopped out with meager $200 yesterday. If not for today's outsize move, I couldn't make it out so early.

Plan to go long next dip.

 

[Wide Tailz]

Holding thru a drawdown like that for $200 is why I never let my winners run. I'd rather be poor and happy!

 

[Laissez Faire]

Best wishes to you. You got this!

Thank you!

And likewise to you and anyone else participating here.

I wish you all the best and hope you all succeed in your trading endeavors.

 

[Laissez Faire]

There's been some talk about seasonality in this thread recently. Here's an article suggesting there's a difference between bull and bear markets. Might warrant some caution moving forward.

Chart Of The Week - Bear Market Seasonality