ES Journal - 2021/2022
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
- Start date
"I know the thing for me to do is just sit back . . . and right now I've got 10 kids in the back of the car just screaming to get out -- meaning that I'm so long that I'm scared to death." - Paul Tudor Jones
Why is that so hard? Just trail your stops.
I don't have exact stats. But it isn't like up 1.5% ah-ha! now we have probability of an uptrend
. It's not that simple there's multiple factors and things I use. Example:
#1 It matter where the move originated from
#2 It matters what higher time frames are doing (recently regained or lost)
#3 Positioning of EMA's also adds probability
#4 When did the move start getting overbought
#5 How extensive was the down move, prior to regaining? If it's massive and we regain it increases chances of an opposing extended move in opposite direction as people were trapped and positioned incorrectly.
Just know when all the factors align I know a full reversal is unlikely and that any shorts I do take if I take any, that it's unlikely they produce as well.
Again it isn't an all or nothing thing. There's various levels and degrees on the move. Not every trend day is un shortable or unbuyable.
Just the way I do it and my thoughts.
Right, I find the longer I am in a winning trade the more relaxed I become. The back and forth grinders that can't make up their mind are the killers psych-wise.
Not sure why you seem to be fighting the concept as it is painfully clear to anyone with a lot of experience - or why you have probability in quotations.
As far as your question - there are a lot more variables / filters to apply then just "hey - what are the odds this keeps going?" (like your consideration for indexes already having moved 1.5 - 2%) I'll readily admit I'm no expert in stats / probabilities. I just know from time put in and other traders far more successful than myself that that is clearly the case on a day like today. Just look at the PA / chart. LF would be a better ask on the math as he is always crunching / dropping figures in the ES thread.
You had commented on a potential short being a good R:R trade at 1:05 EST or about 3893 ES. We've yet to drop below that level for what seem like obvious reasons to me (not to say it wasn't or still isn't possible). What is your risk on the trade - or is it already a bust?
